Table 1. Modelling projections of TB incidence, mortality and costs of treatment for standard of care (SoC), pillbox intervention and label intervention. Whole national population, 2023−2035 time frame.
| SoC value (95% uncertainty interval) | Pillbox value (95% uncertainty interval) | Labels value (95% uncertainty interval) | |
| Epidemiological outcomes | |||
| TB incidence in 2035, per 100 000 persons | 89.30(47.93; 140.56) | 88.07(46.71; 138.50) | 86.97(45.05; 136.94) |
| Difference vs SoC in number of TB episodes over 2023–2035 | −10 963(−31 629; 56 550) | −22 104(−73 566; 20 750) | |
| Percentage difference vs SoC in TB episodes over 2023–2035 | −0.4%(−1.1%; 2.0%) | −0.8%(−0.7%; 2.6%) | |
| TB mortality in 2035 per 100 000 persons | 16.20(8.47; 24.09) | 15.85(8.21; 23.62) | 15.88(8.22; 23.75) |
| Difference vs SoC in number of TB deaths over 2023–2035 | −3665(−11 353; 18.81) | −1382(−14 273; 6.76) | |
| Percentage difference vs SoC in TB deaths over 2023–2035 | −0.7%(−2.2%; 3.6%) | −0.3%(−2.7%; 3.2%) | |
| DALYs averted, million | 0.068(−1.12; 1.28) | 0.002(−1.25; 1.30) | |
| Economic outcomes | |||
| Patient costs, million USD | 12.06(10.43; 13.57) | 9.20(8.034; 10.38) | 9.03(7.76; 10.20) |
| Incremental patient costs, USD | −2.87(−0.94; −4.85) | −3.04(−1.07; −5.06) | |
| Percentage change in patient costs | −23.8%(−7.8%; −40.2%) | −25.2%(−8.9%; −41.9%) | |
| Provider costs, million USD | 317.69(275.84; 357.56) | 154.89(135.32; 174.90) | 137.24(117.81; 154.75) |
| Incremental provider costs, million USD | −162.80(−118.08; −209.64) | −180.45(−134.88; −225.02) | |
| Percentage change in provider costs | −51.2%(−37.2%; −66.0%) | −56.8%(−42.5%; −70.8%) | |
| Total costs, million USD | 329.69(286.27; 370.24) | 164.07(143.12; 184.94) | 146.24(125.78; 164.59) |
| Incremental total costs, million USD | −165.62(−118.29; −214.87) | −183.44(−135.76; −228,66) | |
| Percentage change in total costs | −50.2%(−35.88%; −65.2%) | −55.6%(−41.20%; −69.40%) | |
DALYdisability-adjusted life-yearTBtuberculosis