Fig 16. Calibration on a test data sample with zero new infections over the entire simulation.

(A) Grid-sampled posterior with calibration method 1. (B) Posterior with calibration method 2. (C) Frequency of matching data (data with zero new infections) across discretely sampled training data set for calibration method 1. (D) Scatter plot of parameter sets resulting in matching data across training data set for calibration method 2.