Figure 4.

A larger mean duration of infection (${\gamma }^{-1}$) restricts PASC increases, and decreases the range of possible outcomes following a novel variant emergence. At longer infection duration, the observed infection prevalence is maintained by a lower incidence, so fewer individuals develop PASC each week (assuming the same fraction of infections ($\mathcal{F}=0.02$) develop PASC). Darker shading corresponds to higher primary efficacy ($\eta$). Scenarios assume total vaccine efficacy $\text{VE}=0.55$ as in figure 3a, for infection lasting, on average, either ${\gamma }^{-1}=2$ weeks, or for ${\gamma }^{-1}=0.5$ weeks. PASC duration is modelled by an exponential distribution with mean ${\rho }^{-1}=1$ year. All other parameters as in figure 3.