Figure 5.

At high infection prevalence, uncertainty in the duration of infection (${\gamma }^{-1}$) is more responsible for uncertainty in projected PASC prevalence than uncertainty in total efficacy against PASC (${\text{VE}}_{\mathrm{T}}$). At a higher infection prevalence, new variants with a selective advantage will not greatly alter infection incidence, so projections for PASC prevalence are less sensitive to uncertainty in the transmissibility of new variants. At a lower infection prevalence of $I^{*}=0.02$ (consistent with current SARS-CoV-2 estimates; see table 1) uncertainty in the duration of infection and the transmission potential of new variants gives rise to a wide range of PASC prevalence. Total efficacy against PASC is set to $1-(1-ϵ)(1-\eta )=0.55$. The curves represent outcomes at the new steady-state post-variant emergence, with darker shading corresponding to higher primary efficacy ($\eta$). All other parameters as in figure 3.