Table 2. Estimated 2021–2040 cumulative household impacts ‐ TB Disease Burden (bn USD; 2021 prices) (Δ = change relative to business as usual, #person-years = number of person years, NPV = net present value).
| Households | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Q1 | Income Q2 | Income Q3 | Income Q4 | Income Q5 | ||||||
| ECONOMIC DISEASE BURDEN | bn USD | % of base | bn USD | % of base | bn USD | % of base | bn USD | % of base | bn USD | % of base |
| - ΔNPV Household income | 9.3 | 0.45% | 10.0 | 0.29% | 11.5 | 0.22% | 17.1 | 0.18% | 69.0 | 0.19% |
| - ΔNPV Labour income | 9.0 | 0.46% | 9.1 | 0.30% | 9.4 | 0.21% | 11.6 | 0.15% | 27.7 | 0.13% |
| - ΔNPV Capital income | 0.3 | 0.25% | 0.9 | 0.25% | 2.2 | 0.25% | 5.5 | 0.25% | 41.3 | 0.25% |
| - ΔNPV Household consumption | 9.0 | 0.48% | 9.9 | 0.32% | 11.5 | 0.25% | 17.0 | 0.21% | 54.9 | 0.22% |
| LABOUR MARKET | 1,000s | % of base | 1,000s | % of base | 1,000s | % of base | 1,000s | % of base | 1,000s | % of base |
| - ΔUnskilled labour (#person-years) | 8,505 | 0.55% | 7,409 | 0.38% | 5,901 | 0.29% | 4,171 | 0.21% | 2,642 | 0.17% |
| - ΔSkilled labour (#person-years) | 404 | 0.55% | 621 | 0.38% | 714 | 0.29% | 972 | 0.21% | 1,786 | 0.17% |
| DEMOGRAPHY | 1,000s | % of base | 1,000s | % of base | 1,000s | % of base | 1,000s | % of base | 1,000s | % of base |
| - ΔPopulation (#person-years) | 22,040 | 0.47% | 19,377 | 0.34% | 15,911 | 0.26% | 12,286 | 0.19% | 10,416 | 0.15% |
| - Excess deaths (#persons) | −1,857 | −5.02% | −1,752 | −5.59% | −1,428 | −4.06% | −1,095 | −2.69% | −910 | −1.74% |
| TB CLINICAL OUTCOMES | 1,000s | % of total | 1,000s | % of total | 1,000s | % of total | 1,000s | % of total | 1,000s | % of total |
| - TB incident cases (#persons) | −16,591 | 27% | −15,411 | 25% | −12,586 | 20% | −9,706 | 16% | −8,130 | 13% |
| - TB case fatalities (#persons) | −2,154 | 27% | −2,001 | 25% | −1,633 | 20% | −1,259 | 16% | −1,055 | 13% |
| Note: Own calculations | ||||||||||