Figure 3.
Final consensus expert prior opinion regarding successful response rates (clinically inactive disease at 12 months and off glucocorticoids) for MTX or baricitinib in JDM. The final expert consensus prior opinion was that the most likely value for pC was 0.23; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.11, 0.45) and (0.19, 0.33), respectively. The prior for pE is derived from those for pC and θ. It had mode = 0.55; 90% and 50% credibility intervals were (0.18, 0.86) and (0.37, 0.69), respectively and carried the same weight as observing 22 patients, 11 per treatment arm. Bari: baricitinib