Table 1.
Perinatal vertical transmission probabilities
| PMTCT Regimen | Default Spectrum value (%) | Vertical transmission (%) | Percent change1 | Percent of pregnant WLHIV in each stratum | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20102 | 20152 | 20232 | ||||
| Model one: VTprobability from women not receiving PMTCT | ||||||
| [0–200) | 37.0 | 33.4 (27.8 – 39.0) | −10% | 41% | 20% | 18% |
| [200–350) | 27.0 | 25.1 (21.3 – 28.5) | −7% | |||
| >350 | 15.0 | 16.7 (13.8 – 20.0) | +11% | |||
| Model two: VT probability from maternal seroconversion or short course PMTCT | ||||||
| Infection | 18.1 | 18.0 (12.9 – 24.4) | −1% | |||
| SDNVP | 7.5 | 8.3 (6.1 – 11.6) | +11% | 11% | 1% | 0% |
| Dual ARV | 2.2 | 3.1 (2.1 – 4.8) | +41% | 15% | 0% | 0% |
| Option A | 4.1 | 3.1 (2.4 – 4.0) | −24% | 11% | 2% | 0% |
| Option B | 1.9 | 1.8 (1.4 – 2.3) | −5% | 3% | 4% | 0% |
| Model three: Perinatal transmission probability from women receiving ART by timing of initiation | ||||||
| Option B+, on ART <4 weeks | 8.2 | 5.2 (2.9 – 10.7) | −35% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| Option B+, on ART 5–39 weeks | 1.4 | 1.0 (0.8 – 1.3) | −29% | 9% | 36% | 25% |
| Option B+, on ART preconception | 0.26 | 0.33 (0.23 – 0.48) | +27% | 9% | 34% | 56% |
1
Blue shading represents a percent decrease from the default value. Orange shading represents a percent increase from the default value.
2
The proportion of WLHIV who fall into each category each year globally