Figure 5.

Observed (95% CI) cumulative incidence and predicted cumulative incidence from UKPDS-OM1 (blue line) and UKPDS-OM2 (red line) for individual events in the base-case analysis.

amp, amputation; AnyEvent, first event of any type; CI, confidence interval; IHD, ischemic heart disease; MI, myocardial infarction; HF, heart failure; MSE, mean squared error; QALY, quality-adjusted life-year. Ulcer, second events, and the composite endpoint any event cannot be estimated by UKPDS-OM1 and so are shown only for UKPDS-OM2. The observed cumulative incidence of amputation, blindness, renal failure, and ulcer is plotted up to the last occurrence of that event in the trial. Deaths and any event are based on all patients. All other graphs plotting the incidence of the first event of each type are plotted only for the subset of patients who had no history of that event at randomization; graphs for second events are plotted only for patients who had a history of that event at randomization.