Table 1.

Results for the Base Case Analysis, Sensitivity Analyses Testing Performance Metrics, and Subgroup Analyses ^a

Analysis	Model	Trial QALYs, $\overline{\mathit{x}}$ (s)	Model QALYs, $\overline{\mathit{x}}$ (s)	Q2	R 2	MAE	MSE	Bias	n
Model QALYs v. model QALYs (base case)	OM1	2.573 (1.087)	2.423 (0.953)	0.786	0.805	0.289	0.253	−0.150	14,729
	OM2	2.573 (1.087)	2.445 (0.951)	0.822	0.837	0.265	0.210	−0.127	14,729
Model life-years v. trial life-years	OM1	3.226 (1.352)	3.028 (1.190)	0.797	0.819	0.342	0.372	−0.199	14,729
	OM2	3.226 (1.352)	3.058 (1.188)	0.829	0.846	0.314	0.313	−0.168	14,729
Extreme sensitivity analyses testing performance metrics
Model life-years v. trial QALYs	OM1	2.573 (1.087)	3.028 (1.190)	0.596	0.809	0.522	0.477	0.455	14,729
	OM2	2.573 (1.087)	3.058 (1.188)	0.609	0.840	0.517	0.461	0.485	14,729
Model QALYs v. trial life-years	OM1	3.226 (1.352)	2.423 (0.953)	0.423	0.814	0.887	1.056	−0.803	14,729
	OM2	3.226 (1.352)	2.445 (0.951)	0.462	0.841	0.865	0.984	−0.781	14,729
Subgroup analyses by participant characteristics at randomization
Age <65 y	OM1	2.630 (1.098)	2.568 (1.010)	0.879	0.883	0.184	0.145	−0.061	8,500
	OM2	2.630 (1.098)	2.555 (1.005)	0.886	0.892	0.186	0.137	−0.075	8,500
Age ≥65 y	OM1	2.495 (1.066)	2.225 (0.830)	0.649	0.718	0.433	0.399	−0.270	6,229
	OM2	2.495 (1.066)	2.296 (0.849)	0.727	0.768	0.373	0.311	−0.200	6,229
No prior MI, IHD, or stroke	OM1	2.694 (1.129)	2.570 (1.015)	0.840	0.853	0.241	0.204	−0.125	8,188
	OM2	2.694 (1.129)	2.595 (1.023)	0.865	0.874	0.216	0.172	−0.100	8,188
Prior MI, IHD, or stroke	OM1	2.421 (1.011)	2.240 (0.834)	0.693	0.726	0.349	0.313	−0.181	6,541
	OM2	2.421 (1.011)	2.258 (0.815)	0.747	0.778	0.327	0.259	−0.162	6,541
<5 y diabetes duration	OM1	2.658 (1.155)	2.568 (1.060)	0.847	0.853	0.218	0.204	−0.090	2,712
	OM2	2.658 (1.155)	2.568 (1.046)	0.863	0.870	0.216	0.182	−0.090	2,712
≥5 y diabetes duration	OM1	2.554 (1.070)	2.390 (0.925)	0.770	0.794	0.305	0.263	−0.163	12,017
	OM2	2.554 (1.070)	2.418 (0.926)	0.810	0.829	0.276	0.217	−0.136	12,017

IHD, ischemic heart disease; MAE, mean absolute error; MI, myocardial infarction; MSE, mean squared error; n, number of trial participants included in this analysis; OM1, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model version 1; OM2, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model version 2; QALY, quality-adjusted life-year; Q² = 1 − MSE/S²; QALYs, quality-adjusted life-years; SD, standard deviation; $\overline{x}$ , mean; (s), standard deviation.

^aFor bias, zero indicates no bias, positive (negative) values indicate that the model overestimates (underestimates) trial QALYs, and larger absolute values indicate higher levels of bias.