Figure 4.

Change in key clinical outcomes across scenario analyses. This figure shows the impact of varying selected input parameters across their plausible ranges on estimated additional HIV transmissions, deaths, and life-years lost under Reallocation compared with Current. Each row is a single scenario analysis where either 1 parameter, or multiple parameters, were varied from their base case value. The numerical impact of the parameter change on the clinical outcomes is shown on the right, and the color gradient depicts whether the projected outcome under the given scenario analysis has better (blue) or worse (red) outcomes in that sensitivity analysis compared to the base case reallocation value. The pessimistic case scenario included changing 6 combined parameters: increase in transmissions from PWH with viremia, retention in care to 62% at 2 y in reallocation, HIV testing change to 71%, linkage to care reduction in reallocation by 25%, reduction in condom use to 6% and PrEP use to 38%, and condom and PrEP efficacy to 91% and 95%. Abbreviations: HIV, Human immunodeficiency virus; PrEP, preexposure prophylaxis; PWH, people with HIV.