Table 1.
Key model parameters and assumptions
| Parameter | Value | Range | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Population simulated | |||
| Cohort size of MSM | 100,000 | - | - |
| Cohort age, mean | 20 | - | [40] |
| Transmission probabilities | |||
| Probability of HIV infection, % | 0.60 | 0.20–1.80 | [41] |
| Protection of SMS strategy against HIV, % | 50.10 | 26.40–66.20 | [15] |
| Coverage of SMS strategy, % | 50.00 | 30.00–70.00 | [11] |
| Base HIV testing rate, % | 38.00 | 33.00–46.00 | [42] |
| Improvement of HIV testing rate due to SMS strategy | 1.66 | 1.34–2.02 | Meta-analysis (Table S3) |
| Efficacy of LEN-LA strategy against HIV, % | 100.00 | 90.00-100 | [43] |
| Coverage of LEN-LA strategy, % | 50.00 | 40.00–70.00 | [43] |
| CD4 decrease, undiagnosed | |||
| CD4 ≥ 500, % per year | 24.50 | 19.60–29.40 | [44] |
| CD4 200–499, % per year | 55.00 | 44.00–55.00 | [44] |
| CD4 decrease, on ART | |||
| CD4 ≥ 500, % per year | 16.64 | 16.27–20.02 | [45] |
| CD4 200–499, % per year | 17.80 | 17.45–22.10 | [45] |
| CD4 increase on ART | |||
| CD4 200–499, % per year | 61.13 | 44.25-63.00 | [45] |
| CD4 < 200, % per year | 57.65 | 41.45–58.60 | [45] |
| HIV-related mortality, % per year | |||
| Infected, CD4 ≥ 500 | 0.10 | 0.08–0.12 | [46] |
| Infected, CD4 200–499 | 0.70 | 0.69–0.73 | [46] |
| Infected, CD4 < 200 | 39.00 | 37.00-53.70 | [16] |
| On ART, CD4 ≥ 500 | 0.10 | 0.08–0.12 | [46] |
| On ART, CD4 200–499 | 0.50 | 0.43–0.55 | [46] |
| On ART, CD4 < 200 | 9.00 | 7.50–22.00 | [16] |
| Background mortality by age | China population and employment statistics yearbook | - | [29] |
| Annual cost | |||
| SMS per MSM, $ | 33.8 | 5.0–75.0 | [15] |
| LEN-LA per MSM, $ | 42,250.0 | 21,125.0-63,375.0 | [43] |
| HIV self-testing, $ | 9.8 | 4.9–19.6 | [30] |
| CD4 and viral load testing, $ | 304.0 | 152.0-456.0 | [30] |
| Direct medical costs, $ | |||
| ART cost | |||
| Infected | 0 | - | - |
| On ART | 1,053.3 | (Table S2) | [47, 48] (Table S2) |
| Non-ART medical costs, $ | |||
| Infected, CD4 < 200 | 3,199.2 | 2,169.8-5,239.7 | [29] |
| On ART, CD4 < 200 | 1,599.6 | 477.2-2,619.9 | [29] |
| Utilities | |||
| Infected, CD4 ≥ 500 | 0.910 | 0.888-1 | [49] |
| Infected, CD4 200–499 | 0.790 | 0.760–0.815 | [49] |
| Infected, CD4 < 200 | 0.720 | 0.680–0.760 | [49] |
| On ART, CD4 ≥ 500 | 0.865 | 0.845–0.888 | [49] |
| On ART, CD4 200–499 | 0.830 | 0.825–0.845 | [49] |
| On ART, CD4 < 200 | 0.820 | 0.815–0.825 | [49] |
Abbreviations: MSM, men who have sex with men; SMS, short message service; ART, antiretroviral therapy