Fig. 2.

Summary of posterior model estimates. Panel (A) posterior median estimates [95% credible intervals (CrI)] for quantities of epidemiological interest. Blue: estimates robust to misspecification in the sporozoite batch distribution; yellow: estimates robust to misspecification of the hypnozoite fating probability; green: estimates robust to both forms of misspecification. Panel (B) force of primary blood-stage infection, with seasonality inferred from the incidence of symptomatic falciparum malaria over 10 d windows (shaded regions show 95% CrI). Scaling factors for the ratio of vivax to falciparum inoculation rates are estimated separately before and after April 1994 (day 200 of the study) when there was a camp-wide shift to artesunate-mefloquine treatment of falciparum malaria. Panel (C) age-dependent probability of symptomatic bloodstream vivax malaria infection, relative to a 2 y old. Error bars indicate 95% CrI for each age group; continuous curves are plotted for 200 parameter combinations $(\rho ,\gamma )$ sampled from the posterior distribution.