Table 3.
Model performance in sensitivity analysis and subgroup analyses
|
|
C-index
|
AUC (95%CI)
|
Brier score (95%CI)
|
| Sensitivity analysis | |||
| Exclude patients underwent emergency endoscopy | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.847 | 0.847 (0.781-0.913) | 0.053 (0.036-0.07) |
| 1 year | 0.78 | 0.8 (0.749-0.85) | 0.136 (0.117-0.156) |
| 2 years | 0.724 | 0.75 (0.691-0.81) | 0.188 (0.163-0.213) |
| Subgroup analysis | |||
| Etiology of cirrhosis | |||
| Chronic HBV infection | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.9 | 0.915 (0.858-0.973) | 0.04 (0.021-0.059) |
| 1 year | 0.779 | 0.793 (0.718-0.867) | 0.137 (0.11-0.164) |
| 2 years | 0.717 | 0.731 (0.646-0.816) | 0.195 (0.158-0.232) |
| Autoimmune liver disease | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.913 | 0.884 (0.761-1) | 0.048 (0.011-0.085) |
| 1 year | 0.84 | 0.892 (0.814-0.97) | 0.122 (0.083-0.162) |
| 2 years | 0.798 | 0.821 (0.69-0.953) | 0.154 (0.103-0.206) |
| Alcohol-related | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.803 | 0.817 (0.705-0.929) | 0.093 (0.04-0.147) |
| 1 year | 0.786 | 0.828 (0.723-0.934) | 0.138 (0.094-0.183) |
| 2 years | 0.757 | 0.783 (0.66-0.907) | 0.174 (0.126-0.222) |
| Other | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.745 | 0.718 (0.532-0.903) | 0.067 (0.025-0.109) |
| 1 year | 0.812 | 0.793 (0.695-0.892) | 0.153 (0.11-0.196) |
| 2 years | 0.743 | 0.777 (0.658-0.897) | 0.2 (0.141-0.259) |
| Types of varices | |||
| EV | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.862 | 0.868 (0.796-0.94) | 0.061 (0.036-0.087) |
| 1 year | 0.836 | 0.854 (0.799-0.909) | 0.129 (0.103-0.155) |
| 2 years | 0.776 | 0.822 (0.747-0.896) | 0.164 (0.131-0.197) |
| EV combined with GV | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.845 | 0.823 (0.727-0.919) | 0.05 (0.029-0.071) |
| 1 year | 0.768 | 0.791 (0.726-0.857) | 0.144 (0.119-0.17) |
| 2 years | 0.715 | 0.726 (0.65-0.802) | 0.203 (0.169-0.237) |
| Sex | |||
| Male | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.872 | 0.894 (0.845-0.943) | 0.062 (0.04-0.084) |
| 1 year | 0.796 | 0.809 (0.75-0.869) | 0.139 (0.115-0.163) |
| 2 years | 0.719 | 0.724 (0.651-0.798) | 0.2 (0.167-0.234) |
| Female | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.703 | 0.71 (0.539-0.882) | 0.044 (0.02-0.067) |
| 1 year | 0.781 | 0.831 (0.764-0.899) | 0.136 (0.108-0.164) |
| 2 years | 0.772 | 0.831 (0.756-0.907) | 0.164 (0.13-0.197) |
| Age | |||
| < 60 | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.889 | 0.862 (0.77-0.954) | 0.046 (0.025-0.067) |
| 1 year | 0.771 | 0.783 (0.711-0.854) | 0.134 (0.107-0.161) |
| 2 years | 0.706 | 0.731 (0.649-0.812) | 0.191 (0.155-0.227) |
| ≥ 60 | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.814 | 0.826 (0.742-0.909) | 0.064 (0.039-0.089) |
| 1 year | 0.801 | 0.848 (0.792-0.904) | 0.142 (0.117-0.166) |
| 2 years | 0.761 | 0.796 (0.723-0.87) | 0.181 (0.150-0.213) |
| Use of NSBB | |||
| Non-NSBB group | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.846 | 0.837 (0.753-0.921) | 0.079 (0.046-0.113) |
| 1 year | 0.802 | 0.835 (0.762-0.908) | 0.146 (0.114-0.178) |
| 2 years | 0.794 | 0.871 (0.805-0.937) | 0.141 (0.11-0.171) |
| NSBB group | |||
| 6 weeks | 0.85 | 0.846 (0.754-0.939) | 0.042 (0.025-0.06) |
| 1 year | 0.79 | 0.806 (0.75-0.862) | 0.134 (0.112-0.156) |
| 2 years | 0.708 | 0.705 (0.631-0.78) | 0.21 (0.177-0.242) |
C-index: Concordance index; AUC: Area under the receiver operating curve; CI: Confidence interval; HBV: Hepatitis B virus; EV: Esophageal varices; GV: Gastric varices; NSBB: Nonselective beta-blocker.