Table X.

Model Inputs for the Madura Outbreak Model

Model input (symbol)	Best estimate	Source	Notes
Number of subpopulations	1		Focus on rural population of Madura
Relative population size compared to all of Indonesia	0.00405	61, 100	Ratio of rural population of Madura (∼920,000) to all of Indonesia (∼227 million) in 2005
Number of age groups	9		0–2 months; 3–11 months; 1; 2; 3; 4; 5–9; 10–14; ≥ 15* years
Number of mixing age groups	3		0–4; 5–14; ≥ 15 years
Year when model run-up starts	1950
Year when R0 seasonality starts	1970
Year when die-out first allowed	1980
Average basic reproductive number (R0) (PV1)	9		Fitted within range for middle tier (Table III)
Proportional change in R0 due to seasonality ($\alpha$)	0.2	13	Somewhat less seasonality than in temperate climate countries
Day of seasonal peak in R0(pd)	95 (April 5)		Based on model calibration
Proportion of contacts reserved for individuals within the same mixing age group ($\kappa$)	0.35		For simplicity, assume equal values for each mixing age group
Proportion of transmissions via oropharyngeal route ($p^{oro}$)	0.3	19	Based on approximate average of mean expert assessments for community and close contacts for type 1 in high R0 settings(19)
Per-dose take rate (tr) (PV1)
- tOPV	0.45a
- mOPV	0.66
Routine coverage with 3 or more doses by 1 year of age	Time series 1980–2007	76, 100	See Appendix A4 for values used
Characterization of routine tOPV vaccination, 1981–2007		100	Partial coverage based on convenience sample in rural areas; in the absence of separate estimates for the birth dose coverage, we model the cumulative effect of all four doses (scheduled at birth and 1, 2, and 3 months of age) at age 3 months
- Cumulative effect of all 4 primary doses at age (months)	3
- Coverage with 1 dose given < 4	0.13
- Coverage with 2 doses given < 4	0.13
- Coverage with 3 doses given < 4	0.07
Characterization of tOPV campaigns 1995–2002		100	Dates of rounds reflect approximate average times of campaigns in Indonesia as reported to WHO; see Appendix A4 for effective per-round impact assumptions by year in the absence of good data
- Day of first round	240 (August 28)
- Day of second round	280 (October 7)
- Duration of each round (day)	7
- Effective per-round impact ($\zeta$)	Varies
- Target age groups	0–4 years
Characterization of outbreak response, 2005		100
- Vaccine, by round (rounds 1–2;3)	tOPV;mOPV1
- Day of first round	242 (August 30)
- Day of second round	270 (September 27)
- Day of third round	334 (November 30)
- Duration of each round (days)	7
- Effective per-round impact ($\zeta$) (round 1;2;3)	0.81;0.88;0.85
- Target age groups for all rounds	0–4 years

Acronyms: mOPV1 = monovalent oral poliovirus vaccine type 1; PV1 = poliovirus type 1; tOPV = trivalent OPV; WHO = World Health Organization

^*Age groups marked with an asterisk indicate age groups that count towards determining the fraction of newborns who receive maternal antibodies, based on the immune fraction in those age groups (see Appendix A1).

^aFor runs to verify behavior of other serotypes, we use take rates for tOPV of 0.7 and 0.4 for type 2 and 3, respectively.