Table XIII.
Comparison of Modeled and Observed Age-Specific Paralytic Incidence for Situations that Allow Meaningful Comparisona
| Paralytic cases (percentage of total cases) |
||
|---|---|---|
| Age group | Reported | Model |
|
| ||
| The Netherlands, 1992–1993 (79)b | ||
| 0–4 years | 14 (20%) | 12 (17%) |
| 5–9 years | 8 (11%) | 8 (12%) |
| 10–19 years | 16 (23%) | 14 (20%) |
| 20–29 years | 16 (23%) | 15 (22%) |
| 30–39 years | 14 (20%) | 12 (17%) |
| ≥40 years | 3 (4%) | 9 (13%) |
| Albania, 1996 (57) | ||
| 0–9 years | 19 (14%) | 12 (10%) |
| 10–19 years | 42 (30%) | 62 (51%) |
| 20–39 years | 76 (55%) | 47 (39%) |
| ≥40 years | 1 (1%) | 1 (1%) |
| Tajikistan, 2010 (3) | ||
| <1 year | 90 (20%) | 104 (23%) |
| 1–4 years | 208 (45%) | 217 (47%) |
| 5–14 years | 107 (23%) | 108 (4%) |
| ≥15 years | 53 (12%) | 29 (6%) |
| Madura, 2005 (100)c | ||
| 0–4 years | 36 (80%) | 75 (90%) |
| ≥5 years | 9 (20%) | 8 (10%) |
| Northern Nigeria, 2003–2011 d | ||
| 0–4 years | Not available | 5,099 (94%) |
| ≥5 years | Not available | 282 (6%) |
| Northern India, 2002–2010 (112)e | ||
| 0–4 years | 3,286 (97%) | 4,784 (95%) |
| ≥5 years | 102 (3%) | 257 (5%) |
For Cuba and Haiti, the number of cases remains too low for meaningful comparison; for the USA, the model does not produces a realistic age distribution of cases because it averages out local inter-epidemic periods with low seasonality to yield relatively consistent national totals in the pre-vaccine era.
Reported numbers include 10 nonparalytic cases.
Cases from OPV-related type 1 virus in all reversion stages combined (excluding recipient vaccine-associated paralytic polio).
Cases from all types and all reversion stages combined (excluding recipient vaccine-associated paralytic polio).
Cases for Bihar and Western Uttar Pradesh combined.