Table XIV.
Comparison of Modeled and Observed Secondary OPV Infections Following NIDs in Cuba, Based on Cumulative Force of Infection and Percentage Seropositive Before the Next NID, Respectively
| Percentage secondarily infected (95% CI, if reported) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|
| Source | Type 1 | Type 2 | Type 3 |
|
| |||
| Más Lago et al.(48) | |||
| - Children born during first month after 1991 NID (n = 28) | 46.4% (27.6–65.2) | 46.4% (27.6–65.2) | 17.9% (3.4–32.4) |
| - Children born during second month after 1991 NID (n = 37) | 5.4% (0.0–12.8) | 13.5% (2.3–24.7) | 8.1% (0.0–17.1) |
| - Children born during third month after 1991 NID (n = 53) | 0.0% (0.0–0.0) | 1.9%a (0.0–5.7) | 0.0% (0.0–0.0) |
| Más Lago et al.(95) | |||
| - Children born during first or second month after 1997 NID (n = 14) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Model | |||
| - Fully susceptible children exposed from day 1 after 1991 NID | 14.0% | 16.3% | 8.4% |
| - Fully susceptible children exposed from day 16 after 1991 NID | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.2% |
| - Fully susceptible exposed from day 31 after 1991 NID | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| - Fully susceptible exposed from day 46 after 1991 NID | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Acronyms: CI = confidence interval; NID = national immunization day; OPV = oral poliovirus vaccine
a
Seropositivity in this age group may reflect residual maternal immunity given that maternal antibody levels were still at 24.5% in 1-month younger children at the time of serologic testing.(48)