Table VIII.

Model Inputs for the Cuba Model

Model input (symbol)	Best estimate	Source	Notes
Number of subpopulations	1		Model intended to reflect average conditions in Cuba
Number of age groups	10		0–2; 3–11 months; 1; 2; 3; 4; 5–8; 9; 10–14; ≥ 15* years
Number of mixing age groups	3		0–4; 5–14; ≥ 15 years
Year when model run-up starts	1930
Year when R0 seasonality starts	1940
Year when die-out first allowed	1960
Average basic reproductive number (R0) (PV1)	8		Fitted within range for middle tier (Table III); PV2&3 according to ratios in Table I
Proportional change in R0 due to seasonality (α)	0.05	13	Comparatively less seasonality than in temperate climate countries
Day of seasonal peak in R(pd)	182 (July 1)	13	Similar peak day as previously assumed for the Dominican Republic
Proportion of contacts reserved for individuals within the same mixing age group ($\kappa$)	0.5		For simplicity, assume equal values for each mixing age group
Proportion of transmissions via oropharyngeal route ($p^{oro}$)	0.3	19	Based on approximate average of mean expert assessments for community and close contacts for type 1 in high R0 settings(19)
Per-dose take rate (tr) (PV1;PV2;PV3)	0.5;0.7;0.45		Assume equivalent take for each serotype after bOPV23 then mOPV1 (in 1963 and 1968) and tOPV twice (all other years)
Assumptions about OPV campaigns 1962–1996		92, 93	Target age groups as described by Más Lago et al.(92) (for target age groups that partially overlap with situation-specific age groups (e.g. 5–6 year olds with 1 of 2 rounds in 1965), proportionately reduce effective vaccination rate according to width of targeted age group divided by width of situation-specific age group); average coverage per round based on total children targeted divided by 64 million doses administered 1962–1996(92)
- Day of first round	56 (February 25)
- Day of second round, 1962–1969	91 (April 1)
- Day of second round, 1970–1996	112 (April 22)
- Duration of each round (days)	7
- Effective per-round impact ($\zeta$)	0.94
- Target age groups	Time series
- Relative coverage of booster doses at age 9 (starting 1970)	1

Acronyms: bOPV23 = bivalent type 2 and 3 OPV; OPV = oral poliovirus vaccine; PV(1,2,3) = poliovirus (type 1, 2, or 3, respectively); tOPV = trivalent OPV

Note:

^*Age groups marked with an asterisk indicate age groups that count towards determining the fraction of newborns who receive maternal antibodies, based on the immune fraction in those age groups (see Appendix A1)