Table 2.
Area under the receiving operating curves (AUROC) for fecal biomarkers in predicting a complicated inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) course at 24 months of follow-up and for each component of this composite end point.
| Fecal calprotectin (fCal) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| End Point (N = 171) | AUROC (95% CI) |
Internal Cross-validated AUROC (Bootstrap bias corrected 95% CI)† |
Optimal Threshold | Sensitivity/ Specificity (%) |
| Complicated IBD course (N = 71) | 0.77 (0.69-0.84) |
0.77 (0.67-0.84) |
250 ug/g | 65/83 |
| Medication escalation (N = 45) | 0.83 (0.77-0.90) |
0.84 (0.67-0.87) |
270 ug/g | 73/80 |
| Recurrent corticosteroid use (N = 25) | 0.66 (0.55-0.78) |
0.66 (0.30-0.59) |
285 ug/g | 60/72 |
| IBD-hospitalization (N = 23) | 0.65 (0.51-0.79) |
0.65 (0.29-0.60) |
850 ug/g | 48/85 |
| IBD-surgery (N = 17) |
0.59 (0.43-0.75) |
0.50 (0.14-0.49) |
244 ug/g | 65/65 |
| Fecal myeloperoxidase (fMPO) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| End point (N = 171) | AUROC (95% CI) |
Internal cross-validated AUROC (Bootstrap bias corrected 95% CI)† |
Optimal threshold | Sensitivity/Specificity (%) |
| Complicated IBD course (N = 71) | 0.77 (0.70-0.84) |
0.77 (0.65-0.82) |
12 ug/g | 72/69 |
| Medication escalation (N = 45) | 0.83 (0.77-0.90) |
0.83 (0.67-0.87) |
10 ug/g | 91/62 |
| Recurrent corticosteroid use (N = 25) | 0.69 (0.60-0.78) |
0.69 (0.32-0.63) |
12 ug/g | 80/57 |
| IBD-hospitalization (N = 23) | 0.61 (0.49-0.74) |
0.62 (0.26-0.54) |
31 ug/g | 57/70 |
| IBD surgery (N = 17) |
0.53 (0.37-0.69) |
0.48 (0.16-0.51) |
31 ug/g | 53/69 |
†Kfold = 10 for complicated IBD; Kfold = 5 for each other end point.
No significant differences in AUROC between fCal and fMPO for a complicated IBD course (P = .95), medication escalation (P = .98), recurrent corticosteroid use (P = .45), IBD hospitalization (P = .40) and IBD-surgery (P = .14).