Table 4.

Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of clinical disease indices, biomarkers, and statistical models incorporating multiple measures in predicting a complicated inflammatory bowel disease course at 24 months. The highest AUROC are shown in bold.

	Crohn’s Disease	Ulcerative Colitis
	AUROC (95% CI)	AUROC (95% CI)
HBI	0.67 (0.57-0.78)
SCCAI		0.83 (0.73-0.93)a
CRP	0.58 (0.47-0.69)	0.69 (0.56-0.81)
fCal	0.72 (0.61-0.83)a	0.85 (0.76-0.95)a
fMPO	0.71 (0.61-0.82)a	0.86 (0.78-0.95)a
CRP + fCal	0.75 (0.65-0.85)a	0.85 (0.78-0.95)a
CRP + fMPO	0.72 (0.61-0.82)a	0.86 (0.78-0.95)a
fCal + fMPO	0.72 (0.61-0.83)a	0.86 (0.77-0.95)a
CRP > 3 mg/L + clinical disease activity	0.65 (0.54-0.75)a	0.80 (0.69-0.90)a
CRP > 3 mg/L + fCal ≥ 250 μg/g + clinical disease activity	0.77 (0.68-0.87)a	0.85 (0.75-0.95)a
CRP > 3 mg/L + fMPO ≥ 12 μg/g + clinical disease activity	0.72 (0.62-0.82)a	0.87 (0.77-0.96) a
fCal ≥ 250 μg/g + clinical disease activity	0.78 (0.70-0.87) a , b	0.84 (0.74-0.94)a
fMPO ≥ 12 μg/g + clinical disease activity	0.73 (0.63-0.83)a	0.85 (0.76-0.95)a

HBI, Harvey-Bradshaw index; SCCAI, simple clinical colitis activity index; CRP, C-reactive protein; fCal, fecal calprotectin; fMPO, fecal myeloperoxidase.

Clinical disease activity = HBI > 4 or SCCAI > 5.

^aAUROC significantly different from CRP (P < .05).

^bAUROC significantly different from HBI (P < .05).