Table 2.

Predictive model for estimation of five-year cardiovascular risk in men

Variable	Final model
	ß	Hazard ratio (95% CI)	P-value
Baseline survival S0(5) = 0.8712
Age, years
75–79	Reference	Reference	–-
80–84	0.2484	1.28 (1.06, 1.55)	0.01
85–89	0.5484	1.73 (1.38, 2.18)	< 0.001
90–94	0.4960	1.64 (1.08, 2.49)	0.02
≥ 95	−0.1580	0.85 (0.27, 2.67)	0.79
Smoking	0.2930	1.34 (1.11, 1.61)	0.002
Non-HDL-C, mg/dL
< 130	Reference	Reference	–-
130–160	0.1501	1.16 (0.84, 1.60)	0.33
> 160	0.3488	1.42 (1.00, 2.02)	0.05
Metastatic cancer	−0.8263	0.44 (0.20, 0.98)	0.04
Aspirin	0.2073	1.23 (1.02, 1.49)	0.03

The CVD risk at 5 years: 1-S(t|X) = 1 – S₀(t)^exp(βX), where t = 5

Abbreviations: CVD cardiovascular disease, HDL-C high-density lipoprotein cholesterol