Table 3.
Predictive model for estimation of five-year cardiovascular risk in women
| Variable | Final model | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| ß | Hazard ratio (95% CI) | P-value | |
| Baseline survival S0(5) = 0.8746 | |||
| Age | |||
| 75–79 | Reference | Reference | –- |
| 80–84 | 0.6744 | 1.96 (1.55,2.48) | < 0.001 |
| 85–89 | 1.1921 | 3.29 (2.28, 4.75) | < 0.001 |
| 90–94 | 1.6212 | 5.05 (2.95, 8.67) | < 0.001 |
| ≥ 95 | 1.6647 | 5.28 (2.43, 11.47) | < 0.001 |
| Smoking | 0.2878 | 1.33 (0.95, 1.86) | 0.09 |
| Atrial fibrillation | 0.3672 | 1.44 (1.00, 2.08) | 0.049 |
| Cancer | −0.3573 | 0.70 (0.52, 0.93) | 0.02 |
| Systemic lupus erythematosus | 1.2849 | 3.61 (1.16, 11.28) | 0.03 |
| Dementia | 0.3715 | 1.45 (1.15, 1.83) | 0.002 |
| Osteoarthritis | −0.1737 | 0.84 (0.72, 0.98) | 0.03 |
| Oral anticoagulants | 0.8964 | 2.45 (1.43, 4.19) | 0.001 |
| Antihypertensive drugs | 0.6024 | 1.83 (1.21, 2.76) | 0.004 |
| Age (category)*Antihypertensive drugs | −0.1987 | 0.82 (0.68, 0.98) | 0.03 |
The CVD risk at 5 years: 1-S(t|X) = 1 – S0(t)exp(βX), where t = 5
Abbreviation: CVD cardiovascular disease