Table 2.
HIV incidence estimate for pregnant women aged [15–45) years based on method 1 (estimates incidence from prevalence under three scenarios of mortality) and on method 2 (estimates incidence from prevalence of survival information after HIV infection)
| Calendar estimation point | Prevalence Surveys (Year) | Estimated incidence using Method 1 | Estimated incidence using Method 2 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early | Stable | Declining | |||
| 2010.5 | 2010, 2011 | 6.23 [4.59—9.34] | 6.63 [4.89—9.70] | 7.27 [5.36—10.25] | 7.16 [5.29—10.09] |
| 2011.5 | 2011, 2012 | 29.09 [10.69—42.38] | 29.42 [10.96—42.63] | 29.92 [11.3—42.98] | 29.53 [11.12—42.70] |
| 2014.5 | 2012, 2016 | 2.71 [1.48 – 6.00] | 2.95 [1.62—6.27] | 3.65 [1.88—6.74] | 3.83 [2.01—6.75] |
| 2016.5 | 2016, 2017 | 8.43 [5.29—12.16] | 8.8 [5.61—12.51] | 9.36 [6.13—13.05] | 9.23 [6.07—12.87] |
| 2017.5 | 2017, 2018 | 7.08 [5.14—9.97] | 7.58 [5.51—10.44] | 8.35 [6.14—11.12] | 8.06 [5.93—10.79] |
| 2018.5 | 2018, 2019 | 9.01 [6.75—12.28] | 9.43 [7.13—12.7] | 10.16 [7.76—13.35] | 9.98 [7.65—13.13] |
| 2019.5 | 2019, 2020 | 5.24 [3.68—8.49] | 5.65 [3.97—8.89] | 6.32 [4.54—9.55] | 6.09 [4.38—9.25] |
| 2020.5 | 2020, 2021 | 5.46 [3.88—7.96] | 5.79 [4.15—8.28] | 6.30 [4.60—8.78] | 6.07 [4.43—8.51] |
The incidence was calculated as weighted mean of the age-group incidences, with weights based on age-group sample size: per 100 person-years (95% CI interval). The three scenarios: early (defined as epidemics that are still expanding), stable (epidemics that have stopped expanding) and declining epidemic (epidemics that are in decline)