Table 5. Probabilities of the third mode of birth based on birth patterns including first and second mode of birth of the total population (n=44 677).

	Probability third birth is vag	Probability third birth is instr	Probability third birth is ElCS	Probability third birth is EmCS
	% (95% CI)	% (95% CI)	% (95% CI)	% (95% CI)
Women with two births
Vag-vag	93.2 (92.9 to 93.5)	1.6 (1.4 to 1.7)	3.1 (2.9 to 3.3)	2.1 (1.9 to 2.3)
Vag-instr	78.1 (74.3 to 81.5)	10.7 (8.2 to 13.7)	5.3 (3.6 to 7.6)	5.9 (4.1 to 8.3)
Vag-elCS	30.6 (27.5 to 33.8)	2.4 (1.4 to 3.6)	58.9 (55.5 to 62.2)	8.1 (6.4 to 10.2)
Vag-emCS	33.6 (29.6 to 37.9)	1.9 (0.9 to 3.4	50.5 (46.1 to 54.8)	14.0 (11.1 to 17.2)
Instr-vag	89.0 (88.3 to 89.7)	4.9 (4.4 to 5.4)	3.6 (3.2 to 4.1)	2.5 (2.2 to 2.9)
Instr-instr	64.9 (61.7 to 68.0)	21.1 (18.4 to 23.9)	9.2 (7.4 to 11.3)	4.8 (3.5 to 6.4)
Instr-elCS	12.5 (10.1 to 15.3)	2.6 (1.5 to 4.2)	73.8 (70.2 to 77.1)	11.1 (8.8 to 13.8)
Instr-emCS	17.0 (13.2 to 21.4)	7.0 (4.6 to 10.3)	66.3 (61.0 to 71.3)	9.7 (6.8 to 13.3)
elCS-vag	73.1 (64.2 to 80.8)	4.2 (1.4 to 9.5)	16.0 (9.9 to 23.8)	6.7 (2.9 to 12.8)
elCS-instr	59.3 (45.0 to 72.4)	11.1 (4.2 to 22.6)	24.1 (13.5 to 37.6)	5.5 (1.2 to 15.4)
elCS-elCS	0.8 (0.4 to 1.4)	0.1 (0.0 to 0.5)	93.6 (92.2 to 94.9)	5.5 (4.3 to 6.8)
elCS-emCS	2.2 (0.7 to 5.0)	0.9 (0.1 to 3.1)	79.4 (73.5 to 84.4)	17.5 (12.8 to 23.1)
emCS-vag	70.0 (66.7 to 73.1)	4.4 (3.1 to 6.1)	17.9 (15.3 to 20.7)	7.7 (5.9 to 9.7)
emCS-instr	54.9 (50.3 to 59.5)	12.2 (9.4 to 15.5)	23.5 (19.7 to 27.6)	9.4 (6.9 to 12.4)
emCS-emCS	1.7 (1.0 to 2.6)	0.6 (0.2 to 1.2)	79.4 (77.0 to 81.7)	18.3 (16.2 to 20.7)
emCS-elCS	1.0 (0.7 to 1.3)	0.3 (0.2 to 0.6)	90.9 (90.0 to 91.8)	7.8 (7.0 to 8.6)

elCSelective caesarean sectionemCSemergency caesarean sectionInstrinstrumental vaginal birth with assistance of a forceps or a vacuum devicevagspontaneous vaginal birth