Table 2.

Incidence of CVD according to baseline balance test, 2011–2018.

Outcome	No. events	Incidence rate, per 1,000 person-years	HR (95% CI)
			Model 1a	Model 2b	Model 3c	Model 4d
CVD			(n = 10,154)	(n = 10,148)	(n = 9,993)	(n = 9,750)
Good	1,313	26.1 (24.7, 27.5)	Reference	Reference	Reference	Reference
Moderate	435	35.2 (32.0, 38.6)	1.19 (1.07, 1.32)**	1.21 (1.09, 1.34)**	1.18 (1.05, 1.31)**	1.15 (1.03, 1.28)*
Poor	19	34.0 (21.7, 53.2)	0.87 (0.55, 1.40)	0.87 (0.54, 1.39)	0.89 (0.55, 1.43)	0.87 (0.53, 1.44)
Heart disease			(n = 10,110)	(n = 10,104)	(n = 9,949)	(n = 9,732)
Good	983	19.6 (18.4, 20.9)	Reference	Reference	Reference	Reference
Moderate	333	27.0 (24.3, 30.1)	1.21 (1.07, 1.36)**	1.23 (1.09, 1.39)**	1.20 (1.06, 1.36)**	1.16 (1.02, 1.32)*
Poor	14	25.0 (14.8, 42.3)	0.86 (0.50, 1.47)	0.86 (0.50, 1.47)	0.87 (0.50, 1.50)	0.82 (0.46, 1.45)
Stroke			(n = 10,145)	(n = 10,139)	(n = 9,984)	(n = 9,744)
Good	429	8.3 (7.5, 9.1)	Reference	Reference	Reference	Reference
Moderate	143	11.1 (9.4, 13.1)	1.22 (1.02, 1.47)*	1.24 (1.03, 1.49)*	1.18 (0.98, 1.43)	1.17 (0.97, 1.42)
Poor	6	10.1 (4.5, 22.4)	0.88 (0.41, 1.90)	0.87 (0.40, 1.89)	0.90 (0.41, 1.97)	0.93 (0.42, 2.06)

^{aModel 1 was adjusted for age and sex.}

^{bModel 2 was adjusted for age, sex, residence, education level, smoking and drinking.}

^{cModel 3 was adjusted for age, sex, residence, education level, smoking, drinking, overweight, SBP and DBP.}

^{dModel 4 was adjusted for age, sex, residence, education level, smoking, drinking, overweight, SBP, DBP, comorbidities and medication use.}

*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01, ***p < 0.001.

CVD, cardiovascular disease; HR, hazard ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; SBP, systolic blood pressure; DBP, diastolic blood pressure.