Table 1. Model parameters, descriptions and sources.

Parameter	Description	Distribution	Mean (95% CI)	Source
$P\left(\mathrm{D}|C_{CD4\S amp;lt;200}\right)$	Mpox CFR among PLAHIV	B(27, 152)	17.8%(10.2% to 20.7%)	9
$P\left(HI{V}_{SA}\right)$	HIV prevalence among MSM in South Africa	B(146, 351)	29.4%(25.5% to 33.5%)	Thembisa V.4.7;14Beta distribution fitted via MOM
$P\left(HI{V}_{US}\right)$	HIV prevalence among MSM in the USA	B(241, 1706)	12.4%(10.9% to 13.9%)	17 ; Beta distribution fitted via MOM
$P\left(HI{V}_{US}\right|C)$	HIV prevalence among MSM with mpox in the USA	B(5350, 4142)	56.4%(55.3% to 57.3%)	16
$\alpha$	OR of LHIV among mpox cases vs all MSM	NA	9.2(8.0 to 10.6)	Estimated from the USA case data
Sensitivity analysis
$P\left(\mathrm{D}|C_{CD4\S amp;lt;100}\right)$	Mpox CFR among PLAHIV	B(23, 62)	37.1%(18.2% to 36.9%)	9
$\alpha$	OR of LHIV among mpox cases vs all MSM	NA	1	NA

CFRcase fatality ratioLHIVliving with HIVMOMMethod of MomentsMSMmen-who-have-sex-with-menNAnot availablePLAHIVpeople living with HIV