Table 2. Estimated potential number of mpox cases in South Africa among MSMLAHIV, MSMLHIV and in total under four scenarios with corresponding parameter assumptions.

Scenario:	Central	Sensitivity analyses
OR of LHIV among mpox cases vs all MSM:	9.2 (8.0–10.6)	9.2 (8.0–10.6)	1	1
Definition of AHIV:	CD4<200/mm3	CD4<100/mm3	CD4<200/mm3	CD4<100/mm3
Observed $D_{AHIV}$	3	3	3	3
Assumed $P\left(D_{AHIV}|C_{AHIV}\right)$	15.0%(10.2%–20.6%)	27.1%(18.1%–36.8%)	15.0%(10.2%–20.6%)	27.1%(18.1%–36.8%)
Estimated $C_{AHIV}$	21 (15–29)	11 (8–17)	21 (15–29)	11 (8–17)
Observed $C_{AHIV}$	15	15	15	15
Assumed $P\left(C_{AHIV}\right|C_{HIV})$	6.6%	3.3%	6.6%	3.3%
Estimated $C_{HIV}$	313(227–444)	458(455–503)	313(227–444)	458(455–503)
Assumed $P\left(C_{HIV}\right|C)$	79.1%(75.0%–82.9%)	79.1%(75.0%–82.9%)	29.4%(25.5%–33.5%)	29.4%(25.5%–33.5%)
Estimated $C$	395(287–562)	579(549–640)	1068(750–1543)	1565(1361–1832)
Estimated $P\left(D\right|C)$	0.78%(0.53%–1.05%)	0.52%(0.47%–0.55%)	0.29%(0.19%–0.40%)	0.19%(0.16%–0.22%)
Estimated cases detected	5.7%(3.9%–7.7%)	3.8%(3.4%–4.0%)	2.1%(1.4%–2.9%)	1.4%(1.2%–1.6%)

Results are presented as mean (95% CI) where applicable.

AHIVadvanced HIVLHIVliving with HIVMSMmen-who-have-sex-with-menMSMLAHIVMSM living with advanced HIVMSMLHIVMSM living with HIV