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. 2024 Dec 18;333(8):694–700. doi: 10.1001/jama.2024.24184

2024 Update of the RECOVER-Adult Long COVID Research Index

Linda N Geng 1, Kristine M Erlandson 2, Mady Hornig 3,4, Rebecca Letts 5, Caitlin Selvaggi 6, Hassan Ashktorab 7, Ornina Atieh 8, Logan Bartram 9, Hassan Brim 7, Shari B Brosnahan 10, Jeanette Brown 11, Mario Castro 12, Alexander Charney 9, Peter Chen 13,14, Steven G Deeks 15, Nathaniel Erdmann 16, Valerie J Flaherman 17, Maher A Ghamloush 18, Paul Goepfert 16, Jason D Goldman 19, Jenny E Han 20, Rachel Hess 21, Ellie Hirshberg 22, Susan E Hoover 23, Stuart D Katz 10, J Daniel Kelly 15, Jonathan D Klein 24,25, Jerry A Krishnan 24,26, Joyce Lee-Iannotti 27, Emily B Levitan 28, Vincent C Marconi 29,30,31, Torri D Metz 32, Matthew E Modes 33, Janko Ž Nikolich 34, Richard M Novak 24,26, Igho Ofotokun 29, Megumi J Okumura 35, Sairam Parthasarathy 36, Thomas F Patterson 37, Michael J Peluso 15, Athena Poppas 38, Orlando Quintero Cardona 39, Jake Scott 39, Judd Shellito 40, Zaki A Sherif 7, Nora G Singer 41, Barbara S Taylor 37, Tanayott Thaweethai 6,42, Monica Verduzco-Gutierrez 37, Juan Wisnivesky 9, Grace A McComsey 43, Leora I Horwitz 10,44,, Andrea S Foulkes 6,42,45, for the RECOVER Consortium
PMCID: PMC11862971  PMID: 39693079

Key Points

Question

How do updated data from nearly 4000 additional participants and expanded symptom questionnaires inform the prior research classification for long COVID (LC) or post–COVID-19 condition?

Findings

In this prospective, observational cohort study, data from 13 647 adults participating in the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER-Adult) study were used to update the research index for classifying symptomatic LC and 5 symptom subtypes that differ in associated demographic features and quality of life.

Meaning

The 2024 LC research index may help researchers identify people with symptomatic LC and its symptom subtypes. Refinement of the index will be needed as research advances and the understanding of LC deepens.

Abstract

Importance

Classification of persons with long COVID (LC) or post–COVID-19 condition must encompass the complexity and heterogeneity of the condition. Iterative refinement of the classification index for research is needed to incorporate newly available data as the field rapidly evolves.

Objective

To update the 2023 research index for adults with LC using additional participant data from the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER-Adult) study and an expanded symptom list based on input from patient communities.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Prospective, observational cohort study including adults 18 years or older with or without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection who were enrolled at 83 sites in the US and Puerto Rico. Included participants had at least 1 study visit taking place 4.5 months after first SARS-CoV-2 infection or later, and not within 30 days of a reinfection. The study visits took place between October 2021 and March 2024.

Exposure

SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Presence of LC and participant-reported symptoms.

Results

A total of 13 647 participants (11 743 with known SARS-CoV-2 infection and 1904 without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection; median age, 45 years [IQR, 34-69 years]; and 73% were female) were included. Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator analysis regression approach from the 2023 model, symptoms contributing to the updated 2024 index included postexertional malaise, fatigue, brain fog, dizziness, palpitations, change in smell or taste, thirst, chronic cough, chest pain, shortness of breath, and sleep apnea. For the 2024 LC research index, the optimal threshold to identify participants with highly symptomatic LC was a score of 11 or greater. The 2024 index classified 20% of participants with known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and 4% of those without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection as having likely LC (vs 21% and 5%, respectively, using the 2023 index) and 39% of participants with known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection as having possible LC, which is a new category for the 2024 model. Cluster analysis identified 5 LC subtypes that tracked quality-of-life measures.

Conclusions and Relevance

The 2024 LC research index for adults builds on the 2023 index with additional data and symptoms to help researchers classify symptomatic LC and its symptom subtypes. Continued future refinement of the index will be needed as the understanding of LC evolves.


This prospective, observational cohort study uses data from the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery adult cohort to assess post–COVID-19 condition (or long COVID) with additional participant data and an expanded symptom list.

Introduction

Long COVID (LC) or post–COVID-19 condition is a major public health issue.1,2 The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) defines LC as a heterogeneous, infection-associated chronic condition present for at least 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection.3 The NASEM definition is broadly inclusive and does not require or exclude any symptoms or conditions. However, a granular index for LC is needed to (1) support rigorous and reproducible research and (2) identify biomarkers and treatments.4 Challenges to the establishment of such a research index for LC include the nonspecific nature of many symptoms; the complex and often fluctuating illness trajectory; uncertainty about SARS-CoV-2 infection history; and shifts in virus, immunity, reinfections, and treatments that may be altering the nature of the condition itself.

As part of the National Institutes of Health–funded Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Initiative (https://recovercovid.org/), we published details regarding a preliminary research index5 to identify symptomatic LC based on the symptoms reported by the first 9764 adults enrolled in the RECOVER-Adult study, anticipating refinement of the index after acquisition of additional data. Since then, 3883 additional participants were enrolled in the RECOVER-Adult study or had qualifying visits. Based on patient and community input, data on symptoms of 3 syndromes (myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome,6 dysautonomia,7 and mast cell activation syndrome8) that overlap with LC were collected. The current analysis compares the 2023 symptom-based LC research index with the 2024 index.

Methods

The NYU Grossman School of Medicine institutional review board provided approval. All participants provided written informed consent. Adults with or without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled at 83 sites in the US and Puerto Rico and completed symptom surveys every 90 days.9,10 Included participants had at least 1 study visit taking place 4.5 months after the first SARS-CoV-2 infection or later, and not within 30 days of a reinfection; visits occurred between October 2021 and March 2024 (eMethods in Supplement 1). Eight symptoms were added in June 2023 (eTable 1 in Supplement 1).

Balancing weights were used to account for differences in the distributions for age, sex, and race and ethnicity between participants with vs without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Frequencies of each symptom by SARS-CoV-2 infection status and adjusted odds ratios were calculated using weighted logistic regression. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression approach was used to assign points to each symptom.5,11

The original 44 participant-reported symptoms were used for the LASSO regression approach. The participant-level LC research index was defined as the sum of the points for each reported symptom. An optimal LC index threshold was selected based on the estimated false-positive rate (eMethods in Supplement 1); participants above this threshold were classified as having likely LC. Participants with at least 1 symptom selected by the LASSO regression approach, but not above the threshold were classified as having possible LC. Participants with likely LC were classified into subtypes using the LASSO-selected symptoms as previously described.5 All 52 symptoms were reported overall and by subtypes.

Results

A total of 13 647 participants (11 743 [86%] with known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and 1904 [14%] without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection; median age, 45 years [IQR, 34-69 years]; and 73% were female) were included (eFigure 1 and eTable 2 in Supplement 1). All symptoms were more prevalent in participants with vs without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio >1) (eFigure 2 in Supplement 1).

2024 LC Research Index

Compared with the 2023 LC research index,5 there were 3 symptoms (lack of sexual desire or capacity, gastrointestinal symptoms, and abnormal movements) excluded from the 2024 LC research index and 2 symptoms added (shortness of breath and snoring or sleep apnea). The scores were consistent with the 2023 index (Table). For the 2024 LC research index, the optimal threshold to identify participants with highly symptomatic LC was a score of 11 or greater (eFigure 3 in Supplement 1). The 2024 index classified 20% of participants with known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection and 4% of participants without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection as having likely LC (vs 21% and 5%, respectively, using the 2023 index) and 39% of participants with known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection as having possible LC (scores ≥1-<11), which is a new category for the 2024 model (Figure 1 and eTable 3 in Supplement 1).

Table. Model-Selected Symptoms and Associated Pointsa.

Symptom 2024 analysisb 2023 analysisc
Log odds ratio Pointsd Log odds ratio Pointsd
Score contributors to the 2024 model
Loss of smell or taste 0.734 7 0.776 8
Postexertional malaise 0.599 6 0.674 7
Chronic cough 0.436 4 0.438 4
Brain foge 0.273 3 0.325 3
Thirst 0.062 1 0.255 3
Palpitations 0.234 2 0.238 2
Chest paine 0.132 1 0.233 2
Fatiguee 0.138 1 0.148 1
Dizziness 0.168 2 0.121 1
Shortness of breath 0.182 2 0 0
Snoring or sleep apnea 0.060 1 0 0
Score contributors to the 2023 but not 2024 model
Lack of sexual desire or capacity 0 0 0.126 1
Gastrointestinal symptoms 0 0 0.085 1
Abnormal movements 0.010 0 0.072 1
Hair loss 0 0 0.049 0
Sleep disturbance 0.038 0 0 0
a

The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression models were fitted using SARS-CoV-2 infection status as the outcome. The 44 original symptoms were used for the LASSO regression models, but the 8 symptoms added to the expanded questionnaire were excluded.

b

Based on 13 647 adults enrolled in the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER-Adult) cohort study prior to March 15, 2024, with at least 1 visit taking place at least 135 days (approximately 4.5 months) after the index SARS-CoV-2 infection, and not within 30 days of a reinfection.

c

Based on 9764 participants enrolled in RECOVER-Adult prior to April 10, 2023, with at least 1 visit taking place at least 135 days (approximately 4.5 months) after the index SARS-CoV-2 infection.

d

Determined by multiplying the corresponding estimated log odds ratio by 10 and rounding to the nearest integer.5

e

Required additional severity measure to be considered present in the analysis.5

Figure 1. Relationship Between 2023 and 2024 Research Index for Long COVID (LC) Among Adult Participants With a History of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Figure 1.

Among participants with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 2213 (18.8%) met both the 2023 and 2024 thresholds, 121 (1.0%) met the 2024 but not the 2023 threshold, and 200 (1.7%) met the 2023 but not the 2024 threshold (Figure 1). The proportion meeting the 2024 threshold was greater among participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection before circulation of the Omicron variant (33.8%) vs during Omicron variant circulation (12.7%). The most common symptoms in participants with likely LC were fatigue (85.8% [2002/2334]), postexertional malaise (87.4% [2041/2334]), postexertional soreness (75.0% [225/300]), dizziness (65.8% [1535/2334]), brain fog (63.8% [1488/2334]), gastrointestinal symptoms (59.3% [1385/2334]), and palpitations (58.0% [1353/2334]) (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Symptom Frequency by Long COVID (LC) Status and History of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Figure 2.

The cells with deeper shades represent a higher percentage for the symptom.

aThis symptom was selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model.

bThis symptom was added to the expanded questionnaire in June 2023 (eTable 2 in Supplement 1). Only participants who filled out a questionnaire after these symptoms were added were included in the percentage calculation for these cells. There were 300 participants with LC (score ≥11; 67 participants were in symptom subtype 1, 38 were in subtype 2, 62 were in subtype 3, 76 were in subtype 4, and 54 were in subtype 5) and 1697 had a score of less than 11 (555 without known SARS-CoV-2 infection). Descriptions of the symptom subtypes appear in the “Symptom Subtypes for LC” section of the text.

Symptom Subtypes for LC

Among participants with likely LC and prior known SARS-CoV-2 infection, 5 symptom subtypes were identified (Figure 2). Fatigue and postexertional malaise were prominent in all but subtype 1. Additional prominent features included change in smell or taste (subtype 1), chronic cough (subtype 2), brain fog (subtype 3), palpitations (subtype 4), and postexertional soreness, dizziness, and gastrointestinal symptoms (subtype 5). Participants with a high burden of multisystem symptoms (subtype 5) more often reported worse quality of life, physical health, and daily function than those in the other subtypes (Figure 2 and eFigure 4 in Supplement 1).

Compared with males, a lower proportion of females were classified as having subtype 3 and a higher proportion were classified as having subtype 4 or 5 (eTable 4 in Supplement 1). A higher proportion of Hispanic and multiracial participants were classified as having subtype 5. Higher proportions of unvaccinated participants and those with SARS-CoV-2 infection before circulation of the Omicron variant were in subtype 5.

Discussion

The 2024 index builds upon the 2023 index with additional data from 3883 participants and additional symptoms to provide a classification for research use within the broader NASEM definition of LC.3,5 Compared with the 2023 index, the 2024 index refines the LC classification, consolidates candidate organ systems, increases symptom specificity (replacing broad categories of abnormal movements and gastrointestinal symptoms with more specific symptoms such as shortness of breath and sleep apnea), and further differentiates symptoms into 5 subtypes that track quality-of-life measures.5 The 2024 index does not include postinfection routine laboratory data because these were not meaningfully associated with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection status.12 Individuals not meeting the 2024 index threshold of 11 or greater may still have LC. The index is not designed for clinical diagnosis and researchers may select different thresholds tailored to their needs.

The 2024 and 2023 index models are overall aligned, as evidenced by the positive correlation of LC indices and worsening quality of life as symptom burden increases among subtypes (Figure 1). Fatigue and postexertional malaise were common, suggesting some shared pathways with other infection–associated chronic conditions such as myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome.6,13 The symptom subtypes reflect the heterogeneity of LC, and mechanistic studies will be critical to understand the distinct disease processes. For instance, subtype 5 (the most severe form) was more prevalent among individuals infected before the Omicron variant or before vaccination, potentially suggesting distinct mechanisms of disease. Similarly, when the same method was used to derive a pediatric index, its use resulted in comparable though not identical component symptoms.14

Strengths of this study include large sample size, prospective collection of symptoms, and comparison of participants with vs without known prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. The symptom subtypes may facilitate recognition of the variety of presentations for LC. Inclusion of symptoms related to other infection–associated conditions aligns with patient and community feedback. Within the broader NASEM framework, the 2024 index offers granularity for research use when specificity and control groups are needed.

Limitations

This study has several limitations. First, we cannot distinguish time-dependent effects on symptoms and illness trajectory. Second, decreased testing, milder acute disease, and waning antibody levels could have misclassified some participants in the uninfected group. Third, symptoms from other conditions and medications may have confounded the index. Fourth, selection and attrition biases may have affected cohort characteristics and the relative representation of different variants.5

Conclusions

The 2024 LC research index for adults builds on the 2023 index with additional data and symptoms to help researchers classify symptomatic LC and its symptom subtypes. Continued future refinement of the index will be needed as the understanding of LC evolves.

Supplement 1.

eMethods

eTable 1. Symptoms added to survey and considered in determining index threshold

eTable 2. Demographic characteristics of cohort by infection status at analysis visit

eTable 3. Participants meeting Long COVID (LC) index thresholds

eTable 4. Demographics by Long COVID (LC) phenotype cluster among participants with a history of infection and an LC Index score of ≥ 11

eFigure 1. Cohort Development

eFigure 2. Adjusted Odds Ratios for symptoms between infected and uninfected groups

eFigure 3. Selection criteria for determining optimal Long COVID (LC) Index threshold

eFigure 4. Quality of life and function measures across clusters

eReferences

jama-e2424184-s001.pdf (1.2MB, pdf)
Supplement 2.

Nonauthor collaborators

jama-e2424184-s002.pdf (372.4KB, pdf)
Supplement 3.

Data sharing statement

jama-e2424184-s003.pdf (16.2KB, pdf)

References

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Associated Data

This section collects any data citations, data availability statements, or supplementary materials included in this article.

Supplementary Materials

Supplement 1.

eMethods

eTable 1. Symptoms added to survey and considered in determining index threshold

eTable 2. Demographic characteristics of cohort by infection status at analysis visit

eTable 3. Participants meeting Long COVID (LC) index thresholds

eTable 4. Demographics by Long COVID (LC) phenotype cluster among participants with a history of infection and an LC Index score of ≥ 11

eFigure 1. Cohort Development

eFigure 2. Adjusted Odds Ratios for symptoms between infected and uninfected groups

eFigure 3. Selection criteria for determining optimal Long COVID (LC) Index threshold

eFigure 4. Quality of life and function measures across clusters

eReferences

jama-e2424184-s001.pdf (1.2MB, pdf)
Supplement 2.

Nonauthor collaborators

jama-e2424184-s002.pdf (372.4KB, pdf)
Supplement 3.

Data sharing statement

jama-e2424184-s003.pdf (16.2KB, pdf)

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