Table 2.

Results for the pathways testing biological variables, environmental conditions, and infection status (tested via antibodies) on outbreak occurrence. Ficus habitat suitability was estimated from global points of Ficus occurrence. For each path, the table summarizes the model number (model) with abbreviated pathway, the number of independence tests performed (k), the number of parameters in the model (q), C-statistic (C), D sep p value associated with d separation tests (p), C-statistic corrected for small sample sizes (CICc), difference between model CICc value and the smallest CICc value in set (ΔCICc), and weight of model relative to other models in set (w). Abbreviations for pathways include ‘OU’ for outbreak, ‘AB’ for past infection status, ‘FIC’ for Ficus habitat suitability, ‘FRUG’ for frugivore richness, ‘PTERO’ for Pteropodidae richness, ‘CERCO’ for Cercopithecidae richness, ‘HOM’ for Hominidae richness, ‘ANIMALS’ for all groups of animals (namely Pteropodidae richness, Cercopithicidae richness, Hominidae richness), ‘ENV’ for all environmental variables, ‘MAT’ for mean annual temperature, and ‘P’ for precipitation. See Supporting information for the full pathways tested corresponding to model numbers presented below, and for additional pathways tested but not included in this table.

Model		q	C	D sep p	CICc	ΔCICc	w
13: OU & AB ~ ENV + FIC + ANIMALS	5	61	16.3	0.0901	190	0	0.439
11: OU & ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV + FIC	6	60	20.6	0.0563	190	0.268	0.384
14: OU ~ AB + ENV + FIC + ANIMALS,	3	63	10.2	0.1151	192	2.044	0.158
12: OU ~ ENV + FIC + ANIMALS	4	62	18.7	0.0166	196	6.388	0.018
10: OU & AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV	18	48	482.8	0	608	418.378	< 0.0001
15: OU ~ FIC + AB, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV	22	44	505.9	0	618	428.266	< 0.0001
5: OU ~ AB, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV	22	44	524.2	0	636	446.562	< 0.0001
6: OU ~ AB, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV + FIC	22	44	591.1	0	703	513.47	< 0.0001
9: OU ~ HOM, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV + FIC	24	42	692.2	0	798	608.152	< 0.0001
8: OU ~ FIC + FRUG, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV + FIC	24	42	767.7	0	873	683.609	< 0.0001
16: OU ~ AB + FIC, AB ~ ANIMALS ~ ENV	24	42	772.8	0	879	688.712	< 0.0001
4: OU ~ CERCO, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV	26	40	783.8	0	883	693.525	< 0.0001
2: OU ~ FRUG, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV	25	41	788	0	891	700.861	< 0.0001
3: OU ~ PTERO + FRUG + CERCO, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV	24	42	785.4	0	891	701.352	< 0.0001
1: OU ~ PTERO, AB & ANIMALS ~ ENV	26	40	796.8	0	896	706.542	< 0.0001
7: OU ~ FIC, AB ~ ANIMALS ~ ENV + FIC	25	41	793.9	0	897	706.75	< 0.0001