Table 3.

Results for the pathways testing biological variables, environmental conditions, and infection status (tested via antibodies) on outbreak occurrence. Ficus habitat suitability was estimated from points of Ficus occurrence in Africa only. For each path, the table summarizes the model number (model) with abbreviated pathway, the number of independence tests performed (k), the number of parameters in the model (q), C-statistic (C), D sep p-value associated with d separation tests (p), C-statistic corrected for small sample sizes (CICc), difference between model CICc value and the smallest CICc value in set (ΔCICc), and weight of model relative to other models in set (w). Abbreviations for pathways include ‘OU’ for outbreak, ‘AB’ for past infection status, ‘FIC’ for Ficus habitat suitability, ‘FRUG’ for frugivore richness, ‘PTERO’ for Pteropodidae richness, ‘CERCO’ for Cercopithecidae richness, ‘HOM’ for Hominidae richness, ‘ANIMALS’ for all groups of animals (namely Pteropodidae richness, Cercopithicidae richness, Hominidae richness), ‘ENV’ for all environmental variables, ‘MAT’ for mean annual temperature, and ‘P’ for precipitation. See Supporting information for the full pathways tested corresponding to model numbers presented below, and for additional pathways tested but not included in this table.

Model		q	C	D sep p	CICc	ΔCICc	W
11: OU ~ ANIMALS + ENV + AB, AB ~ ANIMALS ~ ENV	3	63	4.71	0.581	186	0	1.00
14: OU ~ ANIMALS + ENV + FIC, AB ~ ENV + ANIMALS	4	62	20.81	0.008	198	12	0.003
20: OU ~ CERCO + FIC + MAT + P, AB ~ ANIMALS + ENV	5	61	25.03	0.005	198	12.2	0.002
17: OU ~ ENV + FIC + AB, AB ~ ANIMALS + ENV	5	61	25.78	0.004	199	12.9	0.002
13: OU ~ ANIMALS + FIC, AB ~ ANIMALS + ENV	4	62	22.08	0.005	199	13.3	0.001
15: OU ~ ANIMALS + ENV, AB ~ ANIMALS ~ ENV + FIC	2	64	16.43	0.003	202	15.9	< 0.001
19: OU ~ HOM + ENV + FIC, AB ~ ANIMALS + ENV	5	61	31.6	0.001	205	18.8	< 0.001
16: OU ~ FIC ~ ENV, AB ~ ANIMALS + ENV	4	62	31.32	< 0.001	208	22.5	< 0.001
12: OU ~ ANIMALS + FIC + AB, AB ~ ANIMALS ~ ENV	5	61	38.38	< 0.001	211	25.5	< 0.001
18: OU ~ ANIMALS + FIC + P, AB ~ ANIMALS + ENV	5	61	38.38	< 0.001	211	25.5	< 0.001
21: OU ~ FRUG + FIC, AB ~ ANIMALS + ENV + FIC	19	47	513.94	< 0.001	636	449.8	< 0.001
5: OU ~ CERCO, ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV + FIC	22	44	533.48	< 0.001	645	459.5	< 0.001
10: OU ~ FRUG + FIC + ENV, AB ~ ANIMALS + ENV	18	48	530.13	< 0.001	655	469.4	< 0.001
6: OU ~ HOM, ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV + FIC	22	44	623.02	< 0.001	735	549.1	< 0.001
9: OU ~ FIC, ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV	24	42	730.05	< 0.001	836	649.7	< 0.001
1: OU ~ ENV, ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV	23	43	792.4	< 0.001	901	715.2	< 0.001
2: OU ~ ENV, ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV + FIC	22	44	790.99	< 0.001	903	717	< 0.001
4: OU ~ ENV + FIC, ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV	22	44	793.86	< 0.001	906	719.9	< 0.001
7: OU ~ ENV + FIC, AB ~ ANIMALS ~ ENV	22	44	793.86	< 0.001	906	719.9	< 0.001
3: OU ~ CERCO + PTERO + HOM, ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV	24	42	805.36	< 0.001	911	725	< 0.001
8: OU ~ FRUG, ANIMALS & AB ~ ENV	25	41	819.38	< 0.001	922	735.9	< 0.001
22: OU ~ FIC + FRUG, AB ~ ANIMALS ~ ENV + FIC	24	42	823.02	< 0.001	929	742.7	< 0.001