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[Preprint]. 2025 Mar 3:2025.03.02.25323095. [Version 1] doi: 10.1101/2025.03.02.25323095

Figure 2: Summary of SIRS model fits to RSV outbreaks across major islands in Japan.

Figure 2:

(A) Comparisons of observed cases (points) across the five major islands and fitted epidemic trajectories (red lines). (B) Estimated periodic seasonal transmission rates. (C) Relationship between the estimated periodic seasonal transmission rates and mean specific humidity. Points represent seasonal transmission rate estimates across 52 weeks versus average humidity across 2013–2020. Lines represent the corresponding locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) estimates. (D) Estimated relative changes in transmission, capturing the impact of NPI measures. (E) Estimated proportion of the susceptible pool. Lines represent the estimated median of the posterior distribution. Shaded regions represent the 95% credible intervals from the posterior distribution.