Table 1.
Age-standardised prevalence, percentage change, and number of children aged 5–14 years with overweight and obesity in 1990, 2021, 2030, 2050, globally and within super-regions
|
Overweight (not obesity) among individuals aged 5–14 years |
Obesity among individuals aged 5–14 years |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence, % | Estimated mean number | Observed relative change in prevalence, 1990–2021, % | Forecasted relative change in prevalence, 2021–50, % | Prevalence, % | Estimated mean number | Observed relative change in prevalence, 1990–2021, % | Forecasted relative change in prevalence, 2021–50, % | |
| Global | ||||||||
| 1990 | 6·7% (6·5 to 7·0) | 75 243 389 (72 341 825 to 78 289 161) | .. | .. | 2·0% (1·9 to 2·2) | 22 942 921 (21 742 500 to 24 258 536) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 11·2% (10·8 to 11·6) | 151 568 150 (146 112 286 to 157 518 737) | 66·0% (57·2 to 74·8) | .. | 6·9% (6·6 to 7·2) | 93 086 637 (89 574 689 to 96 614 458) | 236·9% (213·5 to 259·3) | .. |
| 2030 | 12·2% (11·7 to 12·8) | 158 595 891 (151 005 504 to 167 389 927) | .. | .. | 9·1% (8·4 to 9·7) | 115 968 998 (105 692 721 to 124 623 970) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 14·1% (13·4 to 14·8) | 169 814 584 (149 896 591 to 191 865 418) | .. | 26·2% (21·3 to 29·7) | 15·6% (12·7 to 17·2) | 185 686 624 (141 316 168 to 220 657 573) | .. | 126·0% (85·6 to 147·3) |
| Central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia | ||||||||
| 1990 | 10·1% (9·4 to 10·8) | 7 023 174 (6 568 076 to 7 510 363) | .. | .. | 3·4% (3·1 to 3·8) | 2 385 177 (2 183 778 to 2 605 458) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 14·7% (13·4 to 16·0) | 8 063 313 (7 371 161 to 8 821 422) | 45·7% (32·0 to 62·0) | .. | 7·6% (6·8 to 8·5) | 4 149 156 (3 717 097 to 4 634 258) | 121·0% (92·2 to 152·7) | .. |
| 2030 | 15·7% (14·4 to 17·1) | 7 808 964 (6 993 044 to 8 703 181) | .. | .. | 8·7% (7·8 to 9·9) | 4 236 425 (3 680 184 to 4 838 256) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 17·6% (15·6 to 19·5) | 7 547 670 (6 409 391 to 8 748 636) | .. | 20·5% (8·9 to 28·3) | 12·1% (9·8 to 14·2) | 5 138 219 (3 992 211 to 6 197 182) | .. | 60·5% (33·8 to 80·6) |
| High income | ||||||||
| 1990 | 12·8% (11·8 to 13·9) | 16 090 998 (14 842 130 to 17 508 108) | .. | .. | 5·2% (4·6 to 6·0) | 6 552 809 (5 779 504 to 7 517 428) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 18·2% (17·1 to 19·3) | 22 368 084 (21 028 360 to 23 726 088) | 42·7% (27·8 to 57·6) | .. | 12·0% (11·1 to 12·9) | 14 620 117 (13 529 456 to 15 809 342) | 129·7% (93·6 to 168·0) | .. |
| 2030 | 19·0% (17·6 to 20·3) | 21 355 633 (19 721 377 to 23 108 751) | .. | .. | 14·2% (13·0 to 15·4) | 15 841 741 (14 278 097 to 17 329 138) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 20·2% (18·4 to 21·6) | 21 463 442 (18 982 913 to 24 257 458) | .. | 11·4% (5·5 to 15·1) | 19·8% (16·8 to 22·1) | 20 824 688 (17 045 368 to 24 145 394) | .. | 65·1% (43·5 to 78·8) |
| Latin America and Caribbean | ||||||||
| 1990 | 11·5% (10·4 to 12·7) | 10 850 890 (9 862 444 to 11 967 425) | .. | .. | 3·2% (2·8 to 3·7) | 3 049 113 (2 672 867 to 3 478 577) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 18·2% (16·9 to 19·7) | 17 514 858 (16 215 190 to 18 898 194) | 59·3% (42·0 to 80·7) | .. | 11·8% (10·6 to 13·0) | 11 225 995 (10 161 933 to 12 393 376) | 265·4% (207·8 to 325·3) | .. |
| 2030 | 19·3% (17·9 to 20·8) | 17 972 529 (16 381 873 to 19 735 605) | .. | .. | 15·5% (13·4 to 17·5) | 14 285 633 (12 265 561 to 16 293 730) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 20·3% (18·5 to 22·3) | 15 511 318 (13 234 280 to 18 140 882) | .. | 11·4% (4·0 to 17·9) | 26·5% (20·0 to 30·8) | 20 044 342 (14 396 995 to 24 851 629) | .. | 126·2% (77·6 to 152·6) |
| North Africa and Middle East | ||||||||
| 1990 | 10·2% (9·5 to 11·1) | 9 086 281 (8 413 098 to 9 832 428) | .. | .. | 3·0% (2·7 to 3·3) | 2 649 424 (2 392 808 to 2 935 100) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 17·6% (16·4 to 18·7) | 21 448 748 (19 969 532 to 22 880 779) | 72·2% (55·3 to 89·6) | .. | 16·0% (14·9 to 17·2) | 19 577 938 (18 223 444 to 21 013 188) | 443·5% (380·6 to 509·7) | .. |
| 2030 | 18·1% (16·7 to 19·4) | 21 999 432 (20 171 810 to 23 858 235) | .. | .. | 21·7% (19·2 to 23·8) | 26 023 494 (22 753 130 to 28 889 586) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 16·9% (15·0 to 18·8) | 20 378 133 (16 837 721 to 24 255 132) | .. | −3·8% (−12·7 to 5·2) | 36·4% (28·7 to 41·7) | 43 413 693 (32 595 960 to 53 092 189) | .. | 126·9% (80·9 to 155·7) |
| South Asia | ||||||||
| 1990 | 3·3% (2·7 to 4·1) | 9 119 534 (7 393 112 to 11 229 221) | .. | .. | 0·9% (0·7 to 1·1) | 2 418 918 (1 835 472 to 3 125 246) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 6·3% (5·2 to 7·6) | 22 301 783 (18 165 032 to 26 860 632) | 92·6% (42·5 to 156·0) | .. | 3·2% (2·5 to 3·9) | 10 993 705 (8 752 745 to 13 360 876) | 276·9% (164·0 to 420·0) | .. |
| 2030 | 7·3% (6·0 to 8·7) | 22 694 597 (18 014 475 to 27 223 499) | .. | .. | 4·5% (3·6 to 5·4) | 13 728 907 (10 715 112 to 17 004 067) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 9·3% (7·7 to 11·1) | 21 750 968 (16 264 419 to 27 940 590) | .. | 48·5 (36·1 to 58·3) | 8·3% (6·0 to 10·5) | 18 807 225 (12 336 387 to 25 346 436) | .. | 156·4% (100·4 to 190·4) |
| Southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania | ||||||||
| 1990 | 4·6% (4·4 to 4·8) | 15 029 811 (14 313 891 to 15 717 392) | .. | .. | 1·2% (1·1 to 1·3) | 3 843 897 (3 604 901 to 4 089 638) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 9·7% (9·2 to 10·1) | 29 640 569 (28 295 024 to 31 005 348) | 111·4% (98·7 to 124·8) | .. | 5·9% (5·6 to 6·2) | 18 137 955 (17 226 690 to 19 127 296) | 403·9% (365·1 to 445·8) | .. |
| 2030 | 10·8% (10·1 to 11·4) | 28 333 414 (25 952 142 to 30 569 694) | .. | .. | 8·0% (6·8 to 8·8) | 20 020 678 (16 860 945 to 22 502 896) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 13·1% (11·6 to 14·3) | 25 626 555 (21 842 103 to 29 187 678) | .. | 35·2% (22·0 to 46·8) | 14·9% (9·3 to 17·9) | 28 621 580 (17 144 746 to 36 411 483) | .. | 154·6% (61·2 to 201·6) |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | ||||||||
| 1990 | 6·0% (5·6 to 6·4) | 8 042 700 (7 565 817 to 8 571 411) | .. | .. | 1·5% (1·4 to 1·6) | 2 043 582 (1 884 720 to 2 217 821) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 10·0% (9·4 to 10·7) | 30 230 795 (28 316 592 to 32 325 748) | 67·1% (53·1 to 82·4) | .. | 4·7% (4·4 to 5·1) | 14 381 772 (13 411 550 to 15 405 705) | 215·8% (185·0 to 248·8) | .. |
| 2030 | 11·1% (10·4 to 11·9) | 38 431 321 (35 239 954 to 42 294 721) | .. | .. | 6·3% (5·8 to 6·8) | 21 832 118 (19 787 132 to 24 089 710) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 13·3% (12·4 to 14·4) | 57 536 497 (48 607 632 to 67 262 601) | .. | 33·3% (28·1 to 37·8) | 11·4% (9·9 to 12·5) | 48 836 876 (39 922 662 to 57 534 015) | .. | 140·3% (115·7 to 155·2) |
Values in parentheses are 95% uncertainty intervals. Estimates specific to overweight and obesity, by sex, age group, and region are provided in appendix 1 (pp 45–49, 54-57, 62–65, 70–71).