Table 2.
Age-standardised prevalence, percentage change, and number of adolescents aged 15–24 years with overweight and obesity in 1990, 2021, 2030, 2050, globally and within super-regions
|
Overweight (not obesity) among individuals aged 15–24 years |
Obesity among individuals aged 15–24 years |
|||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prevalence, % | Estimated mean number | Observed relative change in prevalence, 1990–2021, % | Forecasted relative change in prevalence, 2021–50, % | Prevalence, % | Estimated mean number | Observed relative change in prevalence, 1990–2021, % | Forecasted relative change in prevalence, 2021–50, % | |
| Global | ||||||||
| 1990 | 8·0% (7·8 to 8·2) | 80 796 236 (78 622 682 to 83 125 166) | .. | .. | 1·9% (1·8 to 1·9) | 18 888 788 (18 315 960 to 19 538 335) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 13·7% (13·2 to 14·3) | 168 015 855 (161 929 465 to 174 237 911) | 72·1% (64·1 to 80·1) | .. | 6·6% (6·4 to 6·8) | 80 623 835 (78 209 565 to 83 259 764) | 253·3% (236·5 to 269·1) | .. |
| 2030 | 15·2% (14·6 to 15·8) | 203 503 516 (194 761 251 to 213 139 082) | .. | .. | 8·7% (7·9 to 9·2) | 115 922 532 (106 109 049 to 123 183 105) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 17·5% (16·7 to 18·3) | 215 497 572 (194 432 157 to 237 425 261) | .. | 28·0% (22·6 to 31·4) | 14·2% (11·4 to 15·7) | 174 535 945 (136 380 887 to 202 753 539) | .. | 114·4% (74·2 to 135·5) |
| Central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia | ||||||||
| 1990 | 10·4% (9·7 to 11·2) | 6 393 737 (5 991 318 to 6 875 256) | .. | .. | 2·5% (2·2 to 2·7) | 1 520 127 (1 384 756 to 1 662 134) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 16·0% (15·0 to 17·1) | 7 414 493 (6 954 748 to 7 896 302) | 54·7% (39·7 to 70·0) | .. | 6·1% (5·6 to 6·8) | 2 845 371 (2 605 150 to 3 147 318) | 149·4% (118·7 to 184·9) | .. |
| 2030 | 17·0% (15·8 to 18·3) | 9 210 192 (8 396 842 to 10 020 044) | .. | .. | 7·3% (6·4 to 8·2) | 3 924 467 (3 389 850 to 4 443 520) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 19·3% (17·2 to 21·1) | 8 263 011 (7 053 410 to 9 398 791) | .. | 20·6% (8·7 to 27·2) | 10·0% (8·0 to 11·7) | 4 301 948 (3 349 052 to 5 152 388) | .. | 63·0% (35·0 to 82·1) |
| High income | ||||||||
| 1990 | 14·2% (13·7 to 14·7) | 20 083 686 (19 397 232 to 20 770 417) | .. | 5·0% (4·7 to 5·2) | 7 049 954 (6 709 222 to 7 401 271) | .. | .. | |
| 2021 | 20·0% (19·1 to 20·9) | 25 792 669 (24 687 914 to 26 950 054) | 40·8% (33·2 to 48·9) | .. | 14·9% (14·1 to 15·7) | 19 274 887 (18 262 054 to 20 348 660) | 199·3% (179·2 to 221·0) | .. |
| 2030 | 20·8% (19·9 to 21·8) | 27 238 880 (25 844 243 to 28 709 740) | .. | .. | 17·2% (15·9 to 18·3) | 22 615 280 (20 892 733 to 24 247 776) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 21·9% (20·7 to 23·1) | 25 383 514 (23 246 536 to 27 992 060) | .. | 9·6% (5·2 to 12·5) | 23·1% (19·9 to 25·4) | 26 985 781 (22 500 298 to 30 647 437) | .. | 55·4% (36·7 to 67·4) |
| Latin America and Caribbean | ||||||||
| 1990 | 14·5% (13·4 to 15·7) | 11 326 254 (10 499 720 to 12 288 247) | .. | .. | 3·7% (3·3 to 4·1) | 2 870 352 (2 564 888 to 3 176 054) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 22·4% (21·0 to 23·8) | 21 675 403 (20 333 720 to 23 018 983) | 54·8% (39·0 to 70·2) | .. | 13·5% (12·4 to 14·6) | 13 074 142 (12 057 092 to 14 232 795) | 266·7% (221·5–322·4) | .. |
| 2030 | 23·6% (22·0 to 25·2) | 22 314 662 (20 538 915 to 24 146 027) | .. | .. | 17·8% (15·9 to 19·7) | 16 844 434 (14 772 145 to 18 921 536) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 23·8% (21·8 to 25·9) | 19 971 577 (17 548 665 to 22 737 816) | .. | 6·4% (−0·4 to 11·7) | 29·0% (22·5 to 33·1) | 24 391 386 (18 281 469 to 29 614 627) | .. | 115·3% (70·4–139·6) |
| North Africa and Middle East | ||||||||
| 1990 | 12·9% (12·1 to 13·8) | 8 552 833 (8 000 973 to 9 128 104) | .. | .. | 3·3% (3·0 to 3·6) | 2 164 546 (1 959 774 to 2 392 515) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 21·9% (20·8 to 22·8) | 22 572 310 (21 511 948 to 23 533 301) | 69·4% (55·5 to 83·5) | .. | 15·8% (14·9 to 16·6) | 16 269 385 (15 430 773 to 17 110 550) | 380·2% (328·2 to 441·6) | .. |
| 2030 | 22·6% (21·5 to 23·7) | 27 334 037 (25 499 549 to 29 179 952) | .. | .. | 21·5% (19·3 to 23·2) | 25 995 165 (23 293 218 to 28 523 549) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 21·5% (19·4 to 23·3) | 25 589 351 (21 710 935 to 29 638 458) | .. | −1·9% (−10·2 to 5·6) | 35·7% (27·7 to 40·5) | 42 630 500 (31 937 376 to 50 644 300) | .. | 126·0% (78·8 to 155·4) |
| South Asia | ||||||||
| 1990 | 4·4% (3·7 to 5·3) | 9 104 094 (7 563 435 to 10 870 550) | .. | .. | 0·5% (0·4 to 0·6) | 1 020 030 (817 433 to 1 265 853) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 9·6% (8·2 to 11·4) | 33 635 101 (28 631 156 to 39 774 122) | 120·9% (70·1 to 177·3) | .. | 2·3% (1·9 to 2·9) | 8 152 635 (6 650 355 to 9 982 873) | 379·3% (247·2 to 526·8) | .. |
| 2030 | 11·2% (9·5 to 13·2) | 38 694 834 (32 256 880 to 46 076 135) | .. | .. | 3·4% (2·8 to 4·1) | 11 855 970 (9 509 024 to 14 469 484) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 14·8% (12·4 to 17·3) | 40 301 650 (31 283 034 to 50 465 698) | .. | 55·5% (41·7 to 65·4) | 6·7% (4·7 to 8·4) | 18 147 759 (12 495 128 to 23 925 273) | .. | 175·9% (113·1 to 213·5) |
| Southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania | ||||||||
| 1990 | 5·2% (5·0 to 5·5) | 19 072 477 (18 211 913 to 20 041 949) | .. | .. | 0·8% (0·8 to 0·9) | 3 026 996 (2 840 492 to 3 224 740) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 11·6% (11·1 to 12·1) | 31 430 388 (30 161 562 to 32 691 911) | 121·4% (108·6 to 134·2) | .. | 4·7% (4·5 to 5·0) | 12 828 373 (12 202 122 to 13 532 828) | 469·3% (421·9 to 518·9) | .. |
| 2030 | 13·8% (12·8 to 14·5) | 41 381 775 (37 936 417 to 44 629 617) | .. | .. | 6·9% (5·8 to 7·6) | 20 839 616 (17 249 508–23 311 346) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 16·4% (14·8 to 17·6) | 33 041 788 (28 464 375 to 37 333 495) | .. | 41·5% (28·4 to 48·8) | 12·7% (7·8 to 15·3) | 25 622 610 (15 298 911–32 561 956) | .. | 169·0% (67·2 to 220·2) |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | ||||||||
| 1990 | 6·7% (6·3 to 7·2) | 6 263 154 (5 885 966 to 6 718 049) | .. | .. | 1·3% (1·2 to 1·5) | 1 236 783 (1 124 067 to 1 354 849) | .. | .. |
| 2021 | 11·3% (10·6 to 12·0) | 25 495 491 (24 024 159 to 27 065 979) | 67·6% (52·8 to 82·7) | .. | 3·6% (3·4 to 3·9) | 8 179 043 (7 590 213 to 8 883 136) | 172·3% (139·9 to 207·6) | .. |
| 2030 | 12·8% (12·0 to 13·6) | 37 329 135 (34 562 012 to 40 278 288) | .. | .. | 4·8% (4·4 to 5·2) | 13 847 602 (12 655 241 to 15 271 729) | .. | .. |
| 2050 | 16·1% (14·9 to 17·1) | 62 946 680 (55 666 755 to 70 117 792) | .. | 42·7% (36·9 to 47·8) | 8·3% (7·1 to 9·2) | 32 455 960 (26 569 446 to 38 062 454) | .. | 128·5% (103·2 to 144·9) |
Values in parentheses are 95% uncertainty intervals. Estimates specific to overweight and obesity, by sex, age group, and region are provided in appendix 1 (pp 45, 50–53, 58–61, 66–69, 72–73).