Table 1.
Top 30 level-3 causes of years lived caregiving for older relatives (YLCs) in Europe.
| Years lived caregiving (YLC) rate per 100,000 |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2021 | 2050 | Change |
||
| 2021 versus 2000 | 2050 versus 2000 | ||||
| 1. Low back pain | 262 (251–274) | 300 (288–312) | 326 (313–338) | 14.6% (10–19.7) | 24.4% (19.1–29.9) |
| 2. Diabetes mellitus | 101 (95.2–106) | 162 (155–169) | 252 (242–261) | 61% (52.5–70.1) | 150% (138–164) |
| 3. Falls | 150 (144–156) | 182 (174–191) | 227 (215–239) | 21.4% (16.5–26.1) | 51.2% (45–57.9) |
| 4. Age-related and other hearing loss | 130 (125–137) | 167 (160–173) | 220 (212–229) | 27.9% (23.6–32.7) | 69% (63.1–75.4) |
| 5. Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias | 82.1 (74.5–90.4) | 121 (112–132) | 184 (170–201) | 47.6% (32.5–62.4) | 125% (100–150) |
| 6. Osteoarthritis | 107 (103–112) | 135 (129–140) | 161 (155–167) | 25.7% (21–30.6) | 50.4% (43.4–56.6) |
| 7. Oral disorders | 89.6 (86.3–93) | 99.7 (95.9–104) | 119 (115–124) | 11.4% (7.52–15.3) | 33.3% (28.3–38.3) |
| 8. Depressive disorders | 90.6 (83.6–98) | 110 (103–119) | 113 (105–122) | 21.9% (10.1–33) | 25.3% (13.8–38) |
| 9. Blindness and vision loss | 64.1 (59.8–68.3) | 76.9 (72.5–81.7) | 96.2 (90.3–102) | 19.9% (12.2–28.5) | 50.1% (40.7–61.8) |
| 10. Stroke | 63.3 (57.6–68.6) | 68.4 (61.9–74.4) | 91.1 (83.9–98.9) | 8.16% (−4.76 to 22) | 44% (30.1–61.4) |
| 11. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 46.2 (43.5–49.1) | 59.5 (55.9–63.1) | 83.7 (78.9–88.3) | 28.8% (20.4–38.1) | 81.3% (70.4–94.4) |
| 12. Anxiety disorders | 64.9 (59.3–70.4) | 85.2 (78.8–92.1) | 81.6 (75.8–87.8) | 31.5% (19.5–45.2) | 26.1% (14.1–41) |
| 13. Other musculoskeletal disorders | 47.9 (43.5–51.9) | 61.6 (57.5–65.4) | 74.2 (69.9–79.6) | 28.8% (16.8–40.5) | 55.3% (40.4–75.2) |
| 14. Chronic kidney disease | 29.7 (27.7–31.9) | 40.8 (38.2–43.4) | 72.4 (67.2–77.2) | 37.6% (27.4–48.5) | 144% (127–165) |
| 15. Headache disorders | 66.1 (62.8–69.1) | 73.1 (69.7–76.3) | 71.8 (68.6–74.8) | 10.6% (4.9–17.2) | 8.55% (2.19–13.8) |
| 16. Atrial fibrillation and flutter | 33.6 (30.5–36.4) | 42 (38.9–45.4) | 61.5 (57.2–66) | 25.4% (12.7–39.6) | 83.7% (64.1–106) |
| 17. Neck pain | 50.8 (46.6–55.1) | 57.7 (53.1–62.3) | 61 (56.8–65.5) | 13.7% (3.62–26.4) | 20.2% (8.48–32.3) |
| 18. Other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases | 36.4 (33.3–39.7) | 47.1 (43.3–50.7) | 58.8 (54.5–63.2) | 29.5% (16.1–41) | 61.8% (45.3–77.8) |
| 19. Ischemic heart disease | 28.2 (26.7–30) | 31.1 (29–33) | 41.8 (39.5–44.2) | 10.1% (2.08–18.4) | 48% (38.2–58) |
| 20. Gynecological diseases | 40 (37.9–42.4) | 42.8 (40.4–45.3) | 37.8 (34.7–41.3) | 7.11% (−0.225 to 14.9) | −5.26% (−14.1 to 3.74) |
| 21. Gallbladder and biliary diseases | 29.3 (27.7–30.8) | 30.7 (29.2–32.5) | 34.3 (32.4–36.3) | 5.14% (−1.36 to 12.8) | 17.4% (9.24–26.4) |
| 22. Exposure to mechanical forces | 28.6 (27.1–30.1) | 28.1 (26.8–29.4) | 28.8 (27.4–30.1) | −1.84% (−7.47 to 3.67) | 0.698% (−4.37 to 6.93) |
| 23. Alcohol use disorders | 22.6 (20.3–25.3) | 24.2 (21.6–26.7) | 25.4 (23.1–28.2) | 7.06% (−6.18 to 22.1) | 12.7% (−1.36 to 30.8) |
| 24. Other mental disorders | 18.9 (16.9–21) | 21.9 (20–24.2) | 24.3 (22.3–26.7) | 16.5% (1.69–33.3) | 29.3% (13.6–45.4) |
| 25. Road injuries | 34.3 (31.8–36.9) | 21.1 (19.4–23) | 22.3 (20.7–24.3) | −38.5% (−44.2 to −32.2) | −35% (−41.1 to −27.5) |
| 26. Other sense organ diseases | 15.1 (13.9–16.6) | 18.4 (17.2–19.8) | 22 (20.3–23.7) | 22.1% (11–35.3) | 46.1% (30.3–62.3) |
| 27. Bipolar disorder | 18.9 (15.6–22.7) | 21.6 (18.4–25.5) | 21.9 (18.3–25.1) | 15.5% (−10.9 to 45.2) | 17% (−6.53 to 44.6) |
| 28. Schizophrenia | 19.4 (14.1–25.1) | 21.3 (15.6–27.5) | 21 (15.8–27.2) | 12% (−25.5 to 61.7) | 10.6% (−27.1 to 65.8) |
| 29. Parkinson’s disease | 9.96 (7.67–12) | 14.4 (12.2–16.8) | 20.7 (17.6–23.6) | 46.5% (14.2–94) | 110% (61.8–175) |
| 30. Prostate cancer | 9.16 (7.49–10.7) | 12 (10.4–13.9) | 20.5 (17.9–22.8) | 32% (6.75–62.7) | 125% (84.6–181) |
Health conditions are sorted by 2050 rates. The numbers between brackets are the 95% UIs. The full list of causes is provided in the Supplementary appendix (pp. 58–67).