Table 2.

Model parameters, the highest posterior density interval (HPD) from the approximate Bayesian computation (sequential Monte Carlo algorithm), and the final parameter values applied to the agent-based model to simulate African swine fever transmission in Singapore's wild boar population.

Parameter	Median (95% HPD)	Value used in model	Source
β I: Transmission probability by an infected agent	0.77 (0.55, 1.0)	Bernoulli, p=0.8	de Carvalho Ferreira et al. [48]; Eblé et al. [50]
β D: Transmission probability through contact with an infectious carcass	0.75 (0.52, 0.98)	Bernoulli, p=0.8	Guinat et al. [49]; Gallardo et al. [52]
β R: Transmission probability by a carrier (recovered) agent	0.52 (0.07, 0.99)	Bernoulli, p=0.5	Eblé et al. [50]
μ A: Probability of death following acute infection	0.89 (0.80, 0.98)	Bernoulli, p=0.9	Walczak et al. [53]
μ C: Probability of death following chronic infection	—	Bernoulli, p=0.45	Assumed as 50% of acute infection
γ: Probability to recover from the disease	0.10 (0.02, 0.19)	Bernoulli, p=0.1	Inversely proportional to μA
σ: Severity of infection	—	Bernoulli, p=0.9	Gallardo et al. [52]
Duration of incubation period for exposed agents	4 (3, 5.9)	Poisson, λ = 7 days	Guinat et al. [49]; Walczak et al. [53]; Lee et al. [54]
Duration of infectious period of carrier (recovered) agents	—	Poisson, λ = 24 days	Eblé et al. [50]
Duration of carcass persistence in tropics (without and with carcass removal)	—	Poisson, λ = 10 and 3 days	Mazur-Panasiuk et al. [55]; Nuanualsuwan et al. [56]; Lamperty et al. [15]; Leivers et al. [7]
Time to death following an acute infection	—	Poisson, λ = 4 days	Walczak et al. [53]
Time to death following a chronic infection	—	Poisson, λ = 24 days	Eblé et al. [50]
Duration of immune period following recovery from the disease	—	Poisson, λ = 24 days	Eblé et al. [50]
Mean distance traveled per day	—	4 km	Janeau et al. [57]