. 2025 Apr 25;16:3925. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-59060-2

Table 3.

Average SBR and total stillbirths during the intervention period (2023–2030) by scenario

	Scenario full name (short name)	Average SBR mean difference (95% CI) Percentage difference from SQ^a	Total Stillbirths (95% CI) mean difference (95% CI). Percentage difference from SQ^a
Comparator scenario:	Status Quo (SQ)	16.6 (16.4, 16.8) Ref.	98,358 (97,197, 99,518) Ref.
Scenarios relating to antenatal services:	Increased routine ANC coverage (AN coverage)	16.6 (16.4, 16.7) –0.1 (–0.3, 0.2) N/A	97,907 (97,020, 98,793) –451 (–1736, 835) N/A
Increased coverage and quality of antenatal services (AN coverage and qual.)	16.2 (16.0, 16.4) –0.5 (–0.7, –0.2) –2.7%	95,743 (94,722, 96,765) –2614 (–4184, –1045) –2.7%
Maximum availability of antenatal services (AN max.)	15.9 (15.7, 16.1) –0.7 (–1, –0.5) –4.4%	94,058 (92,826, 95,289) –4301 (–5858, –2743) –4.4%
No antenatal services (AN min.)	17.8 (17.5, 18.0) 1.1 (0.8, 1.5) 6.8%	104,996 (103,627, 106,366) 6639 (4614, 8663) 6.8%
Scenarios relating to intrapartum services:	Increased availability of intrapartum BEmONC interventions (IP BEmONC)	16.3 (16.2, 16.5) –0.3 (–0.5, –0.1) –1.71%	96,752 (95,685, 97,820) –1605 (–2886, –324) –1.6%
Increased availability of intrapartum CEmONC interventions (IP CEmONC)	15.5 (15.2, 15.7) –1.2 (–1.5, –0.8) –7.0%	91,768 (90,173, 93,363) –6589 (–8751, –4428) –6.7%
Maximum availability of intrapartum services (IP max.)	15.0 (14.8, 15.2) –1.6 (–1.9, –1.4) –9.7%	89,169 (88,133, 90,204) –9189 (–10,625, –7753) –9.3%
No intrapartum services (IP min.)	17.3 (17.1, 17.6) 0.7 (0.4, 1.0) 4.1%	102,394 (101,046, 103,741) 4036 (2458, 5615) 4.1%
Scenarios relating to all services:	Increased coverage and antenatal, postnatal services and improved availability of BEmONC interventions (All services coverage)	16.1 (15.9, 16.3) –0.6 (–0.8, –0.3) –3.5%	95,104 (93,919, 96,288) –3254 (–4837, –1671) –3.3%
Increased coverage and quality of antenatal, postnatal services, and improved availability of CEmONC interventions (All services coverage and qual.)	14.9 (14.8, 15.1) –1.69 (–1.94, –1.44) –10.2%	88,599 (87,559, 89,638) –9759 (–11,242, –8276) –9.9%
Maximum availability of antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal services (All services max.)	14.4 (14.2, 14.6) –2.3 (–2.6, –2.0) –13.6%	85,281 (84,157, 86,405) –13,077 (–14,802, –11,351) –13.3%
No availability of antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal services (All services min.)	18.2 (18.0, 18.4) 1.9 (1.3, 1.9) 9.6%	107,654 (106,499, 108,809) 9297 (7777, 10816) 9.5%

Scenario full name (short name)

Average SBR mean difference (95% CI)
Percentage difference from SQ^a

Total Stillbirths (95% CI) mean difference (95% CI). Percentage difference from SQ^a

Comparator scenario:

Status Quo (SQ)

16.6 (16.4, 16.8)

Ref.

98,358 (97,197, 99,518)

Ref.

Scenarios relating to antenatal services:

Increased routine ANC coverage (AN coverage)

16.6 (16.4, 16.7)

–0.1 (–0.3, 0.2)

N/A

97,907 (97,020, 98,793)

–451 (–1736, 835)

N/A

Increased coverage and quality of antenatal services (AN coverage and qual.)

16.2 (16.0, 16.4)

–0.5 (–0.7, –0.2)

–2.7%

95,743 (94,722, 96,765)

–2614 (–4184, –1045)

–2.7%

Maximum availability of antenatal services (AN max.)

15.9 (15.7, 16.1)

–0.7 (–1, –0.5)

–4.4%

94,058 (92,826, 95,289)

–4301 (–5858, –2743)

–4.4%

No antenatal services (AN min.)

17.8 (17.5, 18.0)

1.1 (0.8, 1.5)

6.8%

104,996 (103,627, 106,366)

6639 (4614, 8663)

6.8%

Scenarios relating to intrapartum services:

Increased availability of intrapartum BEmONC interventions (IP BEmONC)

16.3 (16.2, 16.5)

–0.3 (–0.5, –0.1)

–1.71%

96,752 (95,685, 97,820)

–1605 (–2886, –324)

–1.6%

Increased availability of intrapartum CEmONC interventions (IP CEmONC)

15.5 (15.2, 15.7)

–1.2 (–1.5, –0.8)

–7.0%

91,768 (90,173, 93,363)

–6589 (–8751, –4428)

–6.7%

Maximum availability of intrapartum services (IP max.)

15.0 (14.8, 15.2)

–1.6 (–1.9, –1.4)

–9.7%

89,169 (88,133, 90,204)

–9189 (–10,625, –7753)

–9.3%

No intrapartum services (IP min.)

17.3 (17.1, 17.6)

0.7 (0.4, 1.0)

4.1%

102,394 (101,046, 103,741)

4036 (2458, 5615)

4.1%

Scenarios relating to all services:

Increased coverage and antenatal, postnatal services and improved availability of BEmONC interventions (All services coverage)

16.1 (15.9, 16.3)

–0.6 (–0.8, –0.3)

–3.5%

95,104 (93,919, 96,288)

–3254 (–4837, –1671)

–3.3%

Increased coverage and quality of antenatal, postnatal services, and improved availability of CEmONC interventions (All services coverage and qual.)

14.9 (14.8, 15.1)

–1.69 (–1.94, –1.44)

–10.2%

88,599 (87,559, 89,638)

–9759 (–11,242, –8276)

–9.9%

Maximum availability of antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal services (All services max.)

14.4 (14.2, 14.6)

–2.3 (–2.6, –2.0)

–13.6%

85,281 (84,157, 86,405)

–13,077 (–14,802, –11,351)

–13.3%

No availability of antenatal, intrapartum, and postnatal services (All services min.)

18.2 (18.0, 18.4)

1.9 (1.3, 1.9)

9.6%

107,654 (106,499, 108,809)

9297 (7777, 10816)

9.5%

Scenarios relating to postnatal service delivery are not included here.

^aPercentage difference from the SQ is only presented for those scenarios in which the 95% confidence interval does not contain 0.