Table 2.
The case number and ASR of incidence of LBP in aged 15–64 between 1990 and 2021 by sex, SDI quintile and region, with EAPC from 1990 to 2021.
| Characteristics | Cases in 1990 (95%UI) | ASIR (1/100,000) (95%UI) | Cases in 2021 (95%UI) | ASIR (1/100,000) (95%UI) | EAPC (95%CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | 125,925,385 (87544428–172,267,414) | 4111.22 (2862.47–5618.98) | 192,550,188 (134315720–262,878,367) | 3675.94 (2563.49–5020.64) | −0.3 (−0.34–−0.26) |
| Sex | |||||
| 1 Female | 75,951,023 (53026751–103,695,789) | 5000.79 (3497.67–6823.17) | 118,418,188 (82947248–161,150,943) | 4528.97 (3170.7–6166.81) | −0.25 (−0.3–−0.2) |
| 2 Male | 49,974,361 (34573334–68,574,620) | 3,238 (2242.53–4436.53) | 74,132,000 (51443798–101,390,522) | 2826.69 (1961.14–3866.76) | −0.39 (−0.42–−0.36) |
| SDI region | |||||
| 1 High SDI | 31,996,276 (22636746–43,257,100) | 5322.54 (3766.51–7194.25) | 38,264,233 (27840059–50,615,316) | 4874.22 (3547.7–6454.88) | −0.22 (−0.25–−0.19) |
| 2 High-middle SDI | 29,407,862 (20509990–40,183,442) | 4262.32 (2976.47–5821.91) | 36,778,634 (25568300–50,289,192) | 3708.61 (2574.68–5080.52) | −0.37 (−0.43–−0.31) |
| 3 Middle SDI | 33,470,147 (22933114–46,153,891) | 3488.39 (2394.66–4802.16) | 55,606,595 (38259999–76,458,930) | 3220.22 (2214.56–4429.84) | −0.17 (−0.22–−0.12) |
| 4 Low-middle SDI | 22,304,333 (15371539–30,651,219) | 3841.45 (2651.7–5272.34) | 42,279,629 (29044383–58,279,689) | 3635.29 (2500.23–5004.14) | −0.17 (−0.21–−0.13) |
| 5 Low SDI | 8,604,821 (5940659–11,821,306) | 3841.06 (2658.9–5265.77) | 19,445,994 (13368207–26,821,070) | 3637.29 (2506.24–5003.85) | −0.18 (−0.2–−0.16) |
| GBD region | |||||
| 1 Andean Latin America | 570,301 (392916–785,348) | 2956.53 (2038.3–4070.28) | 1,246,659 (863571–1,711,670) | 2960.96 (2051.98–4063.38) | 0.02 (0–0.05) |
| 2 Australasia | 842,795 (596044–1,136,169) | 6243.65 (4414.83–8412.8) | 1,235,552 (861674–1,678,056) | 5797.57 (4045.11–7884.31) | −0.15 (−0.17–−0.12) |
| 3 Caribbean | 627,518 (429017–864,096) | 3132.58 (2143.38–4312.13) | 984,506 (686699–1,344,506) | 3087.22 (2153.37–4217.85) | −0.02 (−0.03–−0.01) |
| 4 Central Asia | 1,687,686 (1172570–2,313,336) | 4493.67 (3133.27–6150.59) | 2,829,579 (1962110–3,876,012) | 4471.61 (3101.44–6124.53) | 0 (−0.01–0) |
| 5 Central Europe | 5,398,459 (3805760–7,315,417) | 6265.36 (4412.53–8499.08) | 5,212,380 (3669280–7,056,409) | 6138.77 (4310.43–8326.87) | −0.07 (−0.08–−0.07) |
| 6 Central Latin America | 3,224,029 (2211591–4,433,405) | 3796.38 (2606.12–5212.97) | 6,506,259 (4485666–8,933,634) | 3858.83 (2660.46–5298.81) | 0.04 (0–0.09) |
| 7 Central Sub-Saharan Africa | 932,231 (640581–1,287,702) | 3,872 (2667.85–5337.34) | 2,414,165 (1653161–3,336,430) | 3742.97 (2568.38–5158.27) | −0.13 (−0.15–−0.1) |
| 8 East Asia | 24,527,075 (16743945–33,961,801) | 3293.75 (2252.57–4551.58) | 31,262,886 (21738588–42,798,228) | 2698.83 (1875.11–3703.57) | −0.46 (−0.56–−0.35) |
| 9 Eastern Europe | 8,760,256 (6127502–11,931,222) | 5397.21 (3777.18–7364.93) | 8,331,610 (5841544–11,321,574) | 5227.55 (3652.63–7126.17) | −0.03 (−0.05–−0.01) |
| 10 Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa | 3,036,652 (2088958–4,170,944) | 3822.05 (2638.87–5234.76) | 7,272,284 (4996304–10,035,640) | 3684.2 (2538.58–5072.21) | −0.13 (−0.14–−0.12) |
| 11 High-income Asia Pacific | 6,865,578 (4801616–9,341,969) | 5544.01 (3873.49–7549.22) | 6,616,781 (4615567–9,015,050) | 5081.45 (3540.42–6935.53) | −0.22 (−0.24–−0.19) |
| 12 High-income North America | 10,999,385 (7810364–14,831,262) | 5866.93 (4166.93–7904.89) | 13,781,072 (10424484–17,533,208) | 5356.04 (4053.7–6816.87) | −0.15 (−0.22–−0.08) |
| 13 North Africa and Middle East | 7,376,602 (5177808–10,022,480) | 4301.16 (3020.35–5845.58) | 16,809,500 (11598307–23,073,766) | 4196.95 (2893.73–5756.15) | −0.05 (−0.07–−0.04) |
| 14 Oceania | 102,670 (70401–142,293) | 3203.98 (2199.76–4426.72) | 245,452 (167332–337,938) | 3176.14 (2169.21–4364.85) | −0.01 (−0.02–0) |
| 15 South Asia | 21,481,714 (14785843–29,571,432) | 3840.14 (2647.79–5276.62) | 40,315,604 (27644486–55,764,381) | 3477.54 (2387.3–4803.06) | −0.32 (−0.41–−0.23) |
| 16 Southeast Asia | 7,229,000 (4982187–9,939,229) | 2936.47 (2026.73–4032.26) | 14,012,052 (9593895–19,337,440) | 2891.39 (1979.05–3991.07) | −0.03 (−0.04–−0.02) |
| 17 Southern Latin America | 1,517,508 (1055478–2,066,344) | 5052.73 (3514.85–6879.39) | 2,321,978 (1617674–3,170,624) | 5009.77 (3489.66–6842.56) | −0.01 (−0.04–0.03) |
| 18 Southern Sub-Saharan Africa | 824,736 (567621–1,137,008) | 3318.51 (2291.65–4564.45) | 1,539,763 (1058908–2,121,892) | 3165.84 (2178.92–4355.8) | −0.13 (−0.13–−0.12) |
| 19 Tropical Latin America | 3,874,493 (2665869–5,320,599) | 4554.67 (3138.3–6251.17) | 7,297,263 (5053407–10,012,452) | 4569.79 (3163.13–6269.4) | 0 (−0.02–0.01) |
| 20 Western Europe | 13,054,611 (9258096–17,573,161) | 4873.63 (3457.96–6564.54) | 14,664,075 (10187235–20,015,546) | 4690.28 (3255.5–6414.85) | −0.07 (−0.1–−0.05) |
| 21 Western Sub-Saharan Africa | 2,992,087 (2065043–4,109,687) | 3526.15 (2439.82–4833.2) | 7,650,770 (5257615–10,576,423) | 3455.93 (2381.02–4763.85) | −0.07 (−0.11–−0.03) |
ASIR, age-standardized incidence rate; EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; SDI, sociodemographic index; CI, confidence interval; UI, uncertainty interval.