Table 2.
Root mean square error (RMSPE), median absolute error (MedAE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), and empirical coverage of one-sided intervals (CIq), over the out-of-sample test set of 6,998 locations.
| Method | F LAI | RMSPE | MedAE | CRPS | CI 75 | CI 95 | CI 99 | Time (minutes) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (mean) | (median) | ||||||||
|
| |||||||||
| QMGP-SiMPA | Poisson | 16.543 | 1.322 | 3.916 | 1.199 | 0.867 | 0.974 | 0.989 | 25.4 |
| Neg. Binom. | 11.726 | 2.155 | 4.462 | 2.241 | 0.809 | 0.980 | 0.994 | 32 | |
|
| |||||||||
| SPDE-INLA | Poisson | 27.839 | 2.154 | 4.695 | 1.214 | 0.835 | 0.938 | 0.961 | 25.8 |
| Neg. Binom. | 27019.470 | 2.444 | 54.986 | 1.720 | 0.875 | 0.975 | 0.987 | 86.5 | |