Trends of Oral Nicotine Pouch Prices and Sales by Product Characteristics in the US, 2021–2024

Abstract

Background:

Oral nicotine pouches (ONPs) have rapidly gained popularity in recent years. While ONPs likely expose users to fewer toxicants than cigarettes, they contain nicotine and may initiate, sustain, or increase nicotine addiction and dependence. Monitoring the ONP marketplace is essential to inform timely regulatory action.

Methods:

We used Nielsen ScanTrack data to analyze ONP sales and prices from 2021 to 2024. Joinpoint regression assessed sales and price trends, and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression evaluated the association between ONP sales and product characteristics.

Results:

Monthly ONP unit sales increased significantly, from 327 million in July 2021 to 1,046 million in May 2024–more than tripling over this period (p<0.001, annual monthly percent change [AMPC]=3.45). Inflation-adjusted prices also rose, from 19 cents/pouch in June 2021 to 22 cents/pouch in May 2024 (p<0.001, AMPC=0.50). The sales of ZYN, On!, Rogue, and VELO account for 99.8% of total sales. ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors outsold those with implicit flavor descriptors by more than eight times. The “chill” flavor had also gained notable popularity. ONPs with 6mg and 3mg nicotine concentrations made up 68% of total sales. Additionally, ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors and higher nicotine concentrations were associated with increased sales.

Conclusions:

Policymakers may need to consider the role of major manufacturers, product flavors, and nicotine content in shaping the market. Continued surveillance is warranted to assess trends in use, particularly among youth and non-tobacco users.

Introduction

Oral nicotine pouches (ONPs) are rapidly gaining ground as a new type of nicotine product in the United States (US). Since they entered the US market in 2016, their sales have increased dramatically, from 163,000 units in 2016 to 46 million units in 2020.[1] Between 2022 and 2023, the sales of ONPs in the US increased from 6.3 billion units to 9.5 billion units, accounting for approximately 62% of the total number of units sold globally.[2] In parallel with rising sales, ONP use has gained prevalence. For example, in 2022, 2.9% of US adults reported ever using nicotine pouches, and 0.4% reported current use.[3] Among high school students, ONP use has steadily increased from 1.1% in 2021 to 2.4% in 2024.[4–7] Moreover, ONP use is higher among younger and middle-aged men, people who identify as white, people who use other tobacco products (e.g., cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and e-cigarettes), and those with lower education and incomes.[8–12]

The popularity of ONPs may be driven in part by their appealing attributes. ONPs contain nicotine either derived from tobacco or synthetic nicotine, but they contain no tobacco leaf. Without tobacco leaf and its associated toxicants, ONPs are often portrayed as a reduced-risk alternative to cigarettes and other tobacco products.[13] Most ONPs are available in a range of nicotine concentrations, typically between 1.5 and 8 mg per pouch, with some products containing nicotine doses of up to nearly 50 mg per pouch.[13] Moreover, ONPs come in a variety of flavors, such as menthol/mint, tobacco, dessert/candy, and fruit, which may be a key ONP use motivation.[14] The ONP industry often uses ambiguous flavor names to navigate sales restrictions on explicitly flavored products. For instance, manufacturers label flavors like “chill” as unflavored, though they contain cooling agents and are perceived as flavored by users.[15] Demonstrating the importance of flavors in ONP use, over half of young adults and nearly two-thirds of youth who use ONPs use flavored ONPs.[16, 17] The role of flavors in promoting ONPs is well-documented, leading to regulatory actions restricting flavors at some state or local levels.[14, 18, 19] Additionally, ONPs are marketed using descriptors such as “tobacco-free nicotine”, which may contribute to perceptions of reduced harm compared to other tobacco products. Prior research has shown that product descriptions and labeling influence consumer beliefs, risk perceptions, and willingness to use nicotine products.[20, 21] The evolving landscape of ONP marketing highlights the need for regulatory attention to ensure that consumers are accurately informed about the risks associated with these products. Finally, unlike cigarettes and other tobacco products, ONPs are not consistently taxed by all states in the US, likely making them more affordable than other tobacco products.[22] Lower prices, combined with appealing flavors and high nicotine concentrations, could contribute to increased ONP uptake, particularly among price-sensitive populations such as youth and young adults. Given these factors, a better understanding of how ONP product characteristics impact use behaviors is essential for informing future regulatory actions.

In light of growing ONP sales and use, it is essential to update the sales trends and monitor product characteristics in the current market. The most recent ONP trend analysis only extends through March 2022, highlighting the need for an update with 2024 sales numbers.[23] Current evidence on ONP sales also lacks a detailed analysis of prices and changes in product characteristics, which are critical for policymakers seeking timely insights for regulation. To address these gaps, this study will examine trends in US ONP sales and prices from July 2021 to May 2024 and analyze changes in product characteristics during this period.

Data and Methods

Data Source

We obtained data from NielsenIQ ScanTrack Data (NSTD) through the Byzzer portal, which provides detailed sales information on ONPs across convenience stores, gas stations, grocery stores, drug stores, and mass-market retailers in the US. The NSTD dataset, updated every four weeks, includes comprehensive information such as unit sales, sales value, average price, brand, flavor, nicotine concentration, total size (total number of pouches per canister), etc. This dataset covers the period from June 5, 2021, to May 31, 2024. The variable “UPC” serves as a unique product identifier. The initial data was available at the UPC-weekly level. We aggregated these data to a monthly level to calculate the total monthly ONP sales and average prices in the US, which were then used to analyze trends in unit sales, average prices, flavors, and nicotine concentrations.

Study Measures

Since the number of pouches per canister varies by brand, for instance, ZYN canisters contain 15 pouches, while Rogue, On!, and VELO canisters contain 20 pouches, we measure ONP sales by pouch units (in millions), which are comparable across brands with different canister sizes.[1, 23] Specifically, we multiplied canister unit sales by the number of pouches per canister and aggregated the results across all UPCs by month. For pricing, we report the average price per pouch (in cents) to be consistent with the sales measure. To adjust for inflation, we converted ONP prices to real terms in constant June 2021 dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.[24]

The NSTD includes brand information for each transaction, which we use to analyze the top-selling ONP brands in the US. The NSTD provides two flavor variables: “flavor,” a broad flavor descriptor, and “flavor detail,” a more specific descriptor. For example, the “mint” flavor includes flavor details such as cool mint, peppermint, spearmint, and mint breeze, while the “wintergreen” flavor includes only “wintergreen” as its detail. We used the higher-level flavor descriptor for reporting to ensure conciseness without altering the original flavor information provided by the NSTD. To analyze trends in flavor and nicotine concentration, we categorized each ONP product based on explicit or implicit flavor descriptors and high or low nicotine concentrations. Explicit descriptors include terms like mint, coffee, cinnamon, mango, etc., while implicit descriptors include terms like smooth, chill, and regular. We created a “flavor group” variable, set to 1 for explicit flavors and 0 for implicit ones. Similarly, we constructed a “nicotine concentration group” variable, set to 1 for products with nicotine concentrations above 4 mg and 0 otherwise. There are no sales with zero nicotine concentration.

Statistical Analysis

We applied Joinpoint analysis to identify subperiods where trends in sales and average prices shifted and to assess their statistical significance. The model also estimates the average monthly percent change (AMPC) and corresponding confidence intervals (CIs) at a 95% significance level. Additionally, we employed the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to examine the associations between ONP sales, prices, and product characteristics. Specifically, we regressed ONP sales on average price, time, flavor group, nicotine concentration group, and their respective interactions with time. The interaction terms reveal whether trends in ONP sales over time vary by flavor group and nicotine concentration group. In other words, they indicate whether sales growth differs between ONPs with explicit vs. implicit flavor descriptors or between products with higher vs. lower nicotine concentrations.

Since sales data for June 2021 begins on June 5, missing four days of data, we excluded June 2021 observations from the OLS regression and the Joinpoint trend analysis on ONP sales. However, for average prices, we retained the June 2021 observation, as it covers the majority of June sales (25 days) and is unlikely to significantly affect price accuracy. The data on product characteristics were recorded through store observations by Nielsen experts and contain some missing values. For example, certain transactions lacked recorded nicotine concentration data. However, an assessment of sales volumes with missing nicotine concentration values revealed they account for only 0.00002% of total sales, a negligible proportion unlikely to affect our conclusions. Therefore, we excluded observations with missing nicotine concentration data from the regression analysis. All OLS regressions were conducted using Stata 18 (StataCorp LLC, College Station, TX). The AMPCs were calculated using the Joinpoint Regression Program, Version 5.2.0.0. April, 2024.

Results

Trends of total Unit sales and average prices

Figure 1 illustrates the trends in total unit sales from July 2021 to May 2024. ONP sales rose significantly, with unit sales per month increasing from 327 million in July 2021 to 1,046 million in May 2024–more than tripling over this period. The AMPC in sales was 3.45 (95% CI: 3.27 to 3.63). The Joinpoint analysis identified zero joinpoint, meaning the rate of sales growth was consistent throughout the study period. Supplementary Figure 1 presents the trend in inflation-adjusted sales revenue for all ONP brands combined. Between July 2021 and May 2024, inflation-adjusted ONP sales revenue increased nearly fourfold, growing from $61 million to $232 million.

Figure 1:

Trends analysis of ONP sales, July 2021–May 2024

Figure 2 presents the trends in real average unit prices of ONPs. Real average prices fluctuated between 19 cents and 20 cents per pouch initially from July 2021 to May 2022, then began a steady increase, reaching 23 cents per pouch in December 2023, with a slight decline thereafter. Nonetheless, the AMPC in prices was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.40 to 0.61). Joinpoint identified four joinpoints; however, none of these changes were statistically significant.

Figure 2:

Trend analysis of real average prices per pouch, June 2021–May 2024

Brand

The sales of ZYN, On!, Rogue, and VELO account for 99.8% of total sales among the top ten selling brands in the US market, captured by the Nielsen data. Of the top 20 selling UPCs, 13 are from ZYN, 6 are from On!, and 1 is from Rogue (see supplementary Figure 2). Supplementary Table 1 shows the top ten selling brands by year. ZYN, On!, Rogue, and VELO consistently ranked as the top four brands across all years. ZYN was the most popular brand in the past three years. Sales of some brands decreased (e.g., 2ONE, Lucy) during this time, while newly introduced brands (e.g., zone, introduced in the US in spring 2024) emerged among the top ten selling brands.

Flavor

Supplementary Figure 3 illustrates the top ten selling ONP flavors by unit sales from June 2021 to May 2024. Mint leads as the most popular flavor, with 8.20 billion units sold, followed by Wintergreen at 4.86 billion units. Together, these two flavors represent approximately 63% of the total unit sales among the top ten flavors in the US market. Supplementary Table 2 provides a year-by-year breakdown of the top ten selling flavors. Mint, wintergreen, citrus, and cinnamon consistently held the top four positions each year. The sales of the chill flavor rose from seventh place in 2021 to fifth place in 2024. In contrast, dragon fruit flavor sales, which ranked in the eighth place in 2021, fell out of the top ten from 2022 to 2024. Coffee, smooth, menthol, and mango flavors maintained relatively stable positions throughout the period.

Supplementary Figure 4 illustrates total unit sales categorized by flavor descriptors (explicit vs. implicit). ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors consistently outperformed those with implicit descriptors. The sales ratio of explicit to implicit flavor descriptor ONPs was 12.8 in 2021, 11.2 in 2022, 7.1 in 2023, and 6.7 in 2024. On average, ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors outsold their implicit counterparts by approximately 8.3 times, underscoring the dominance of explicitly flavored ONPs in the market. Figure 3 depicts the trends in ONP sales by flavor descriptors. While the sales of both explicit and implicit flavor descriptor ONPs increased over the past three years, those with explicit descriptors grew at a significantly higher rate (p<0.001). This observation is further corroborated by Table 1, which shows that the sales of ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors increased by an average of 6 million units (p<0.001) per month compared to those with implicit flavor descriptors.

Figure 3:

Trends in ONP sales by flavor descriptors, July 2021–May 2024

Table 1:

Results from OLS regression analysis

Independent Variable	Total Unit Sales (in millions) a
Average unit price (in cents)	−3.356** (0.006)
Time	1.388* (0.017)
Flavor group (explicit=1, implicit=0)	105.680*** (<0.001)
Flavor group × Time	5.993*** (<0.001)
Nicotine concentration group (higher=1, lower=0)	31.371** (0.006)
Nicotine concentration group × Time	2.663*** (<0.001)

Note:

^***p<0.001,

^**<0.01,

^*<0.05.

^a: The June 2021 observation was excluded from the OLS regression analysis due to missing four days of sales data.

Nicotine Concentration

Supplementary Figure 5 highlights the top ten best-selling nicotine concentrations from June 2021 to May 2024, based on volume sales. These concentrations are 6mg, 3mg, 4mg, 8mg, 2mg, 7mg, 12mg, 15mg, and 9mg. The most popular nicotine concentration is 6mg, with 10.4 billion units sold during this period. The second most popular concentration, 3mg, recorded 4 billion units in sales. Together, these two concentrations account for approximately 68% of all ONP sales. Figure 4 illustrates trends in ONP sales by nicotine concentrations. Sales of both higher nicotine concentrations (>4mg) and lower nicotine concentrations (≤4mg) increased over the past three years. However, sales of ONPs with higher nicotine concentrations grew at a significantly faster rate (p<0.001). This trend is further supported by Table 1, which shows that sales of ONPs with higher nicotine concentrations increased by an average of 2.7 million units per month compared to those with lower nicotine concentrations.

Figure 4:

Trends in ONP sales by nicotine concentrations, July 2021–May 2024

Discussion and Conclusion

This study explored the trends in ONP sales, prices, as well as product characteristics from July 2021 to May 2024. Consistent with previous periods (2016–2022 and 2019–2022),[1, 23] ONP sales continued to grow steadily through 2024, with a particularly notable surge occurring between 2023 (data point 20 in Figure 1) and 2024 (data point 35). Figures 1 and 2 show that both ONP sales and prices have increased over the past three years, suggesting a positive correlation at first glance. However, regression analysis controlling for product characteristics reveals a significant negative association between price and sales (p<0.01; Table 1), consistent with the law of demand. This implies that changes in product characteristics—such as higher nicotine concentrations and more appealing flavors—may have offset rising prices, helping to sustain increased sales over time, as illustrated in the descriptive figures.

The US ONP market is dominated by four major brands - ZYN, On!, Rogue, and VELO. This observation is consistent with existing knowledge that ONPs are manufactured and sold by large tobacco companies, and the ONP market has been an oligopoly since the launch of these products, similar to the cigarette market.[25] In contrast, the early stage of the e-cigarette market was more competitive, with a large number of manufacturers and brands.[26] Therefore, regulation over ONPs needs to consider the significant market power that the ONP manufacturers have in responding to policies and regulations. Regulators may want to consider whether (and how) the highly concentrated nature of the ONP market is an issue that needs to be addressed.[27]

ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors consistently outperformed those with implicit descriptors (marketed as unflavored ONPs), aligning with existing research showing that flavored nicotine products are generally more popular than non-flavored or tobacco-flavored alternatives.[28–30] However, the sales ratio of ONPs with explicit to implicit flavor descriptors has decreased from 12.8 in 2021 to 6.7 in 2024, indicating a diminishing dominance of ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors in the market. This trend may reflect the impact of increasing state and local flavor restrictions in recent years, which have likely reduced the availability of ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors.[31–33] Additionally, we observed the growing popularity of ONPs marketed under descriptors like “Chill,” which signals the presence of cooling agents.[34] This suggests that manufacturers may be circumventing flavor restrictions by manipulating other sensory-driving characteristics of ONPs to increase product appeal.

ONP sales by nicotine concentrations (Supplementary Figure 5) do not follow a clear linear trend—higher nicotine levels are not consistently associated with increased sales. This suggests that manufacturers are strategically diversifying ONPs by nicotine concentrations, with sales likely influenced more by brand and flavor appeal than by nicotine concentration alone. From 2021 to 2024, sales of 3 mg ONPs surpassed those of 4 mg ONPs, in contrast to earlier data from 2019 and 2020,[23] where 4 mg products outsold 3 mg ones. However, in general, ONPs with higher nicotine concentrations (>4mg) outpaced those with lower nicotine concentrations (≤4mg). Further research on ONP nicotine levels and their consumer appeal is warranted to guide policymakers considering the regulation of ONPs.

Under the US Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA’s) current policy, ONPs can remain on the market while Premarket Tobacco Product Applications (PMTAs) are pending, so long as their manufacturers submit PMTAs prior to September 9, 2020. Tobacco companies submitted PMTAs for the best-selling ONP brands (Zyn, On!, Velo, Rogue, and Velo) prior to that date. In January 2025, the FDA authorized the sale of numerous flavors and strengths of Zyn products, though it conditioned those authorizations on the manufacturer agreeing to marketing restrictions designed to reduce youth use. As of this writing, the FDA has still not ruled on the PMTA submissions of the other best-selling ONP brands. Major public health organizations recently wrote that the FDA “must . . . conclude its public health review of these products” and that “it is essential that the FDA takes into account recent developments in the US marketplace” while doing so.[35] This paper provides additional contextual evidence that can inform the FDA’s review of PMTAs for ONPs.

Despite these important findings, the study has several limitations. First, the Nielsen data used only captures sales from traditional brick-and-mortar stores, excluding online and specialty shop sales, which may underestimate the total market. Second, we measured ONP sales and prices using pouch units, which differ from the canisters commonly sold in the market. As a result, readers may find it challenging to translate these figures into canister equivalents. Since the number of pouches per canister varies across brands, using pouch units is the most consistent and accurate approach available. Third, ONP manufacturers in the US offer various pouch sizes, such as mini, slim, regular, and plus. However, the NSTD does not include any information on pouch sizes. Consequently, total ONP unit sales were measured based on the number of pouches, and average unit prices were calculated without accounting for pouch size.

This study provides timely and important updates on the evolving ONP marketplace in the US. We document sustained growth in ONP sales and prices, identify the top-selling brands, flavors, and nicotine concentrations, and highlight the emergence of “chill” flavors containing synthetic cooling agents—products that may circumvent existing flavor bans. These findings offer critical context for the FDA’s ongoing review of pending PMTAs for ONPs. Given the continued expansion of the market and the dominance of flavored and high-nicotine products, regulatory decisions should be grounded in up-to-date marketplace data and their potential public health implications. Building on our findings of associations between sales, price, and product characteristics, future research could examine the price elasticity of demand for ONPs, explore how product preferences vary by individual socioeconomic factors, and analyze geographic variations in ONP sales across neighborhoods.

What is already known on this topic:

• Without tobacco leaf and its associated toxicants, Oral Nicotine Pouches (ONPs) are often portrayed as a reduced-risk alternative to cigarettes and other tobacco products.

• ONPs are rapidly gaining ground as a new type of nicotine product in the US.

What this study adds:

• This study examines trends in US ONP sales, prices, and product characteristics from July 2021 to May 2024.

• ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors consistently outperform those with implicit descriptors (marketed as unflavored ONPs). Additionally, we observe the growing popularity of ONPs marketed under descriptors like “Chill,” which signals the presence of cooling agents and suggests that manufacturers may be circumventing flavor restrictions by manipulating other sensory characteristics.

• ONPs with explicit flavor descriptors and higher nicotine concentrations are associated with increased sales.

How this study might affect research, practice, or policy:

• This study significantly advances our understanding of ONP market dynamics.

• This study informs public health strategies and regulatory policies aimed at reducing nicotine dependence and curbing the appeal of ONPs to vulnerable populations.