Table 3.

Validation using the SAIL cohort: MAPE (%) for each age/frailty subgroup.

	Living	Entering the cohort	Dying	Deregistration	Frailty Transitions	Ageing
50–64
Fit	2.09	5.05	9.48	4.77		8.17
Mild	1.41	5.64	8.36	7.38		12.3
Moderate	6.45	8.35	5.37	11.73		10.26
Severe	6.73	18.86	5.12	10.92		21.38
Fit to Mild					3.05
Mild to Moderate					4.94
Moderate to Severe					3.85
65–74
Fit	2.4	16.99	9.69	10.95		6.08
Mild	7.10	25.24	9.84	7.26		9.21
Moderate	5.58	28.12	4.01	18.2		2.78
Severe	11.05	48.84	1.13	15.36		14.05
Fit to Mild					6.68
Mild to Moderate					8.03
Moderate to Severe					3.33
75–84
Fit	3.31	19.97	11.2	4.13		10.12
Mild	4.32	21.98	10.7	6.6		3.24
Moderate	1.38	23.23	6.62	12.34		7.39
Severe	2.33	27.49	1.99	4.32		3.19
Fit to Mild					10.61
Mild to Moderate					4.39
Moderate to Severe					5.37
85+
Fit	9.12	12.02	8.01	7.38		n/a
Mild	4.15	15.76	6.70	8.23		n/a
Moderate	2.93	19.19	3.09	11.13		n/a
Severe	8.92	34.64	4.43	4.3		n/a
Fit to Mild					4.45
Mild to Moderate					5.97
Moderate to Severe					7.38