Table 3.

ARIMA (purely autoregressive) and ARIMAX (including wastewater data as exogenous variable) performances on forecasting hospitalization rates 7 days ahead in terms of probabilistic forecast metrics. Model were evaluated on 68 testing windows using the relative sharpness, coverage and relative integrated score (IS) calculated on the 95% confidence interval. Mean values are displayed with corresponding 95% confidence intervals

Model	Relative Sharpness	Coverage	Relative IS (95% CI)
ARIMA	24.32 (22.85, 25.79)	94 (89, 99)	39.43 (32.75, 47.10)
ARIMAX	25.66 (24.01, 27.30)	92 (85, 95)	47.30 (36.97, 57.63)