Table 5.

ROC analysis for predicting frequent exacerbations (≥ 3 events/year)

Model	AUC (95% CI)	Sensitivity	Specificity	Cutoff	p value versus CRP alone
CRP alone	0.724 (0.658–0.790)	0.698	0.701	> 8.2 mg/L	–
CAR alone	0.731 (0.666–0.796)	0.743	0.692	> 0.15	0.312
CPR alone	0.718 (0.651–0.785)	0.688	0.706	> 32.1	0.407
Clinical model*	0.762 (0.701–0.823)	0.725	0.732	–	0.021
Clinical model + CRP	0.815 (0.761–0.869)	0.789	0.781	–	< 0.001
Clinical model + CAR	0.828 (0.776–0.880)	0.803	0.794	–	< 0.001
Clinical model + CPR	0.821 (0.768–0.874)	0.794	0.786	–	< 0.001

*Clinical model: age + sex + albumin + prealbumin + dyspnea + COPD