Table 3. Projected ten-year scenarios for mortality reduction, events, and associated costs with strengthened tobacco control measures, 2020-2029.
| Scenarios | Reduction in mortality | Reduction in events | Cost reduction (millions of US dollars a) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case (Ll - UL) | Estimated reduction (Ll - UL) | Base case (Ll - UL) | Estimated reduction (Ll - UL) | Base case (Ll - UL) | Estimated reduction (Ll - UL) | ||
| Neutral packaging and more than 80% of the surface area covered with health warnings | |||||||
| Cardiovascular diseases | 646 (323-970) | 688 (361-1742) | 2525 (1263-3788) | 2687 (1410-6806) | 62.82 (31.41-94.24) | 66.83 (35.09-169.31) | |
| Stroke | 670 (335-1005) | 712 (374-1805) | 4606 (2303-6909) | 4900 (2573-12414) | 123.38 (61.69-185.07) | 131.25 (68.91-332.51) | |
| COPD | 1539 (769-2308) | 1637 (859-4147) | 13202 (6601-19803) | 14044 (7373-35579) | 177.39 (88.69-266.08) | 188.71 (99.07-478.06) | |
| Pneumonia | 861 (430-1291) | 915 (481-2319) | 7461 (3731-11192) | 7937 (4167-20108) | 3.94 (1.97-5.91) | 4.19 (2.2-10.62) | |
| Lung cancer | 678 (339-1017) | 721 (379-1827) | 762 (381-1144) | 811 (426-2055) | 46.49 (23.25-69.74) | 49.46 (25.97-125.3) | |
| Other types of cancer | 779 (389-1168) | 829 (435-2099) | 1247 (624-1871) | 1327 (696-3361) | 65.54 (32.77-98.31) | 69.72 (36.6-176.63) | |
| Exposure to environmental smoke and other causes | 672 (336-1009) | 715 (376-1812) | NA | NA | 61.83 (30.92-92.75) | 65.78 (34.54-166.65) | |
| Total | 5845 (2922-8767) | 6218 (3265-15751) | 29804 (14902-44706) | 31706 (16645-80323) | 541.4 (270.7-812.1) | 575.96 (302.38-1459.09) | |
| Full compliance with anti-smoking laws | |||||||
| Cardiovascular diseases | 1129 (572-1671) | 551 (236-1052) | 3788 (2104-9891) | 2152 (922-4108) | 109.76 (55.62-162.41) | 53.55 (22.94-102.2) | |
| Stroke | 1170 (593-1731) | 571 (245-1089) | 6909 (3838-18041) | 3926 (1682-7493) | 215.56 (109.24-318.96) | 105.16 (45.05-200.7) | |
| COPD | 2689 (1363-3978) | 1312 (562-2503) | 19803 (11001-51707) | 11252 (4820-21475) | 309.91 (157.05-458.57) | 151.19 (64.76-288.55) | |
| Pneumonia | 1503 (762-2225) | 733 (314-1400) | 11192 (6218-29223) | 6359 (2724-12137) | 6.89 (3.49-10.19) | 3.36 (1.44-6.41) | |
| Lung cancer | 1184 (600-1752) | 578 (247-1103) | 1144 (635-2986) | 650 (278-1240) | 81.23 (41.17-120.2) | 39.63 (16.98-75.63) | |
| Other types of cancer | 1361 (690-2014) | 664 (284-1267) | 1871 (1039-4884) | 1063 (455-2029) | 114.51 (58.03-169.43) | 55.86 (23.93-106.61) | |
| Exposure to environmental smoke and other causes | 1175 (595-1738) | 573 (246-1094) | NA | NA | 108.03 (54.75-159.85) | 52.7 (22.58-100.58) | |
| Total | 10212 (5175-15110) | 4982 (2134-9508) | 44706 (24836-116731) | 25402 (10881-48482) | 945.88 (479.34-1399.62) | 461.45 (197.67-880.68) | |
| Total ban on TAPS b | |||||||
| Cardiovascular diseases | 108 (0-1465) | 970 (539-2532) | 421 (0-5724) | 3788 (2104-9891) | 10.47 (0-142.4) | 94.24 (52.35-246.06) | |
| Stroke | 112 (0-1518) | 1005 (558-2623) | 768 (0-10441) | 6909 (3838-18041) | 20.56 (0-279.66) | 185.07 (102.82-483.23) | |
| COPD | 256 (0-3488) | 2308 (1282-6027) | 2200 (0-29924) | 19803 (11001-51707) | 29.56 (0-402.07) | 266.08 (147.82-694.76) | |
| Pneumonia | 143 (0-1951) | 1291 (717-3370) | 1244 (0-16912) | 11192 (6218-29223) | 0.66 (0-8.93) | 5.91 (3.28-15.44) | |
| Lung cancer | 113 (0-1537) | 1017 (565-2655) | 127 (0-1728) | 1144 (635-2986) | 7.75 (0-105.39) | 69.74 (38.75-182.1) | |
| Other types of cancer | 130 (0-1766) | 1168 (649-3051) | 208 (0-2827) | 1871 (1039-4884) | 10.92 (0-148.56) | 98.31 (54.62-256.7) | |
| Exposure to environmental smoke and other causes | 112 (0-1524) | 1009 (560-2634) | NA | NA | 10.31 (0-140.16) | 92.75 (51.53-242.19) | |
| Total | 974 (0-13248) | 8767 (4871-22892) | 4967 (0-67555) | 44707 (24835-116732) | 90.23 (0-1227.17) | 812.1 (451.17-2120.48) | |
Ll: lower limit; UL: upper limit; COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; NA: not applicable; TAPS: tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship
a
Monetary values are expressed in 2020 USD. Exchange rate January 2020: USD 1 = PEN 3.3 (Soles)
b
The base case corresponds to a comprehensive ban on TAPS and the estimated reduction corresponds to a complete ban on TAPS.