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. 2005 Sep 10;2:9. doi: 10.1186/1742-7622-2-9

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Model predictions of the effect of ART on a mature epidemic, under various assumptions. Model simulations of the potential impact of ART on a mature epidemic, varied by treatment uptake rate, reduction in infectivity due to treatment and impact on risk behaviour at the population level (see Endnote for model description). The model used only incorporates one stage of HIV infection and so individuals initiate treatment at an earlier stage of infection than is realistic, and there is homogeneous sexual mixing. Scenario A – ART uptake = 50% per year, sexual activity post ART = unchanged (2.5 partners per year), reduction in infectivity due to ART = 50-fold. Scenario B – ART uptake = 50% per year, sexual activity post ART halves (1.25 partners per year), reduction in infectivity due to ART = 50-fold. Scenario C – ART uptake = 50% per year, sexual activity post ART = unchanged (2.5 partners per year), reduction in infectivity due to ART = 1000-fold. Scenario D – ART uptake = 90% per year, sexual activity post ART = unchanged (2.5 partners per year), reduction in infectivity due to ART = 1000-fold. Scenario E – ART uptake = 90% per year, sexual activity post ART = reduced by 20% (2 partners per year), reduction in infectivity due to ART = 1000-fold.