Table 3:

Hazard ratios for state transition in the full and simplified models.

Full model - both AGP and CP impact on all state transitions
State transitions	AGP	CP
Inactive→active LN	1.80 (1.08, 3.01)	0.46 (0.17,1.28)
Active→inactive LN	1.22 (0.78, 1.91)	0.33 (0.18, 0.62)
Simplified model - AGP impacts on the inactive→active transition (predicting flare), and CP on the active→inactive transition (predicating remission)
Inactive→active LN	1.49 (1.10, 2.02)	-
Active→inactive LN	-	0.60 (0.39, 0.93)

Hazard ratios (evaluated at mean factor values) and 95% confidence intervals shown. AGP = alpha-1-acid-glycoprotein, Ceruloplasmin = CP, LN = lupus nephritis.