Table 4:

Observed and expected state prevalence’s over a 1-year period using the optimal Markov Multi-State model.

	Inactive LN		Active LN
Time	Observed	Expected	Observed	Expected
3 months	50	51	23	22
6 months	41	42	18	17
9 months	33	35	16	14
1 year	21	22	11	10

In the optimal model, AGP impacts on the inactive to active state transition (predicting flare) and CP on the active to inactive transition (predicting remission). The observed state is that which is observed from the renal BILAG scores. The expected state is that which is predicted by the optimal Markov Multi-State model. LN = lupus nephritis.