Table 2.
Changing trends of age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality and DALY rates of NCDs in the elderly aged 60 to 95 plus at the global and SDI regional levels in 1990 to 2021
| Location | Sex | AAPC | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence | Prevalence | Mortality | DALYs | ||||||
| 95%CI | Pval | 95%CI | Pval | 95%CI | Pval | 95%CI | Pval | ||
| NCDs | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
−0.04 (−0.05 to −0.04) |
< 0.001 |
0.01 (0.01 to 0.01) |
< 0.001 |
−0.99 (−1.11 to −0.87) |
< 0.001 |
−0.77 (−0.85 to −0.69) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
−0.03 (−0.05 to −0.01) |
0.001 |
0.00 (0.00 to 0.00) |
0.077 |
−1.51 (−1.62 to −1.41) |
< 0.001 |
−1.1 (−1.14 to −1.06) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
−0.21 (−0.22 to −0.2) |
< 0.001 |
0.01 (0.01 to 0.01) |
< 0.001 |
−1.21 (−1.42 to −0.99) |
< 0.001 |
−0.99 (−1.18 to −0.79) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
0.07 (0.06 to 0.08) |
< 0.001 |
0.01 (0.01 to 0.01) |
< 0.001 |
−1.02 (−1.17 to −0.87) |
< 0.001 |
−0.83 (−1.01 to −0.64) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
0.06 (0.05 to 0.07) |
< 0.001 |
0.01 (0.01 to 0.01) |
0.002 |
−0.18 (−0.51 to 0.15) |
0.278 |
−0.20 (−0.35 to −0.05) |
0.011 |
| Low SDI | Both |
0.00 (−0.01 to 0.00) |
0.255 |
0.00 (0.00 to 0.00) |
0.992 |
−0.37 (−0.55 to −0.18) |
< 0.001 |
−0.39 (−0.48 to −0.30) |
< 0.001 |
| CVD | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
−0.49 (−0.56 to −0.43) |
< 0.001 |
−0.05 (−0.06 to −0.04) |
< 0.001 |
−1.37 (−1.53 to −1.20) |
< 0.001 |
−1.29 (−1.41 to −1.17) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
−1.13 (−1.22 to −1.03) |
< 0.001 |
−0.33 (−0.35 to −0.32) |
< 0.001 |
−2.76 (−2.89 to −2.62) |
< 0.001 |
−2.62 (−2.74 to −2.51) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
−0.52 (−0.58 to −0.46) |
< 0.001 |
0.03 (0.01 to 0.05) |
0.045 |
−1.52 (−1.85 to −1.19) |
< 0.001 |
−1.51 (−1.85 to −1.16) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
−0.01 (−0.04 to 0.02) |
0.490 |
0.25 (0.24 to 0.26) |
< 0.001 |
−0.97 (−1.13 to −0.82) |
< 0.001 |
−1.04 (−1.24 to −0.85) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
−0.19 (−0.28 to −0.1) |
< 0.001 |
0.10 (0.09 to 0.10) |
< 0.001 |
−0.33 (−0.64 to −0.02) |
0.035 |
−0.38 (−0.56 to −0.19) |
< 0.001 |
| Low SDI | Both |
−0.30 (−0.38 to −0.21) |
< 0.001 |
−0.02 (−0.03 to −0.02) |
< 0.001 |
−0.47 (−0.65 to −0.29) |
< 0.001 |
−0.58 (−0.75 to −0.42) |
< 0.001 |
| CRD | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
−0.48 (−0.49 to −0.47) |
< 0.001 |
−0.73 (−0.75 to −0.70) |
< 0.001 |
−1.41 (−1.57 to −1.24) |
< 0.001 |
−1.41 (−1.5 to −1.33) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
−0.53 (−0.59 to −0.47) |
< 0.001 |
−1.06 (−1.09 to −1.02) |
< 0.001 |
−0.84 (−0.94 to −0.73) |
< 0.001 |
−0.95 (−1.03 to −0.86) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
−0.70 (−0.74 to −0.66) |
< 0.001 |
−0.90 (−0.92 to −0.88) |
< 0.001 |
−2.46 (−2.67 to −2.26) |
< 0.001 |
−2.47 (−2.66 to −2.29) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
−0.59 (−0.6 to −0.57) |
< 0.001 |
−0.33 (−0.34 to −0.31) |
< 0.001 |
−2.39 (−2.6 to −2.19) |
< 0.001 |
−2.4 (−2.55 to −2.24) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
−0.29 (−0.31 to −0.27) |
< 0.001 |
−0.10 (−0.12 to −0.08) |
< 0.001 |
−0.28 (−0.83 to 0.28) |
0.328 |
−0.38 (−0.65 to −0.11) |
0.006 |
| Low SDI | Both |
−0.15 (−0.17 to −0.14) |
< 0.001 |
−0.07 (−0.08 to −0.05) |
< 0.001 |
−0.36 (−0.8 to 0.08) |
0.111 |
−0.44 (−0.73 to −0.15) |
0.003 |
| DM and CKD | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
0.76 (0.75 to 0.78) |
< 0.001 |
0.48 (0.47 to 0.50) |
< 0.001 |
0.56 (0.46 to 0.67) |
< 0.001 |
0.82 (0.75 to 0.89) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
0.74 (0.71 to 0.76) |
< 0.001 |
0.75 (0.72 to 0.79) |
< 0.001 |
0.16 (0.05 to 0.28) |
0.005 |
0.85 (0.7 to 0.99) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
0.82 (0.77 to 0.86) |
< 0.001 |
0.29 (0.27 to 0.32) |
< 0.001 |
0.27 (0.08 to 0.46) |
0.006 |
0.51 (0.38 to 0.64) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
0.98 (0.96 to 1.00) |
< 0.001 |
0.31 (0.30 to 0.33) |
< 0.001 |
0.42 (0.24 to 0.61) |
< 0.001 |
0.62 (0.49 to 0.74) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
1.08 (1.02 to 1.14) |
< 0.001 |
0.56 (0.54 to 0.58) |
< 0.001 |
1.04 (0.99 to 1.09) |
< 0.001 |
1.13 (0.99 to 1.27) |
< 0.001 |
| Low SDI | Both |
0.7 (0.66 to 0.73) |
< 0.001 |
0.46 (0.43 to 0.48) |
< 0.001 |
0.21 (0.06 to 0.37) |
0.007 |
0.29 (0.16 to 0.42) |
< 0.001 |
| DD | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
−0.14 (−0.16 to −0.12) |
< 0.001 |
0.14 (0.13 to 0.16) |
< 0.001 |
−1.35 (−1.45 to −1.26) |
< 0.001 |
−1.28 (−1.36 to −1.21) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
−0.23 (−0.27 to −0.2) |
< 0.001 |
0.08 (0.06 to 0.09) |
< 0.001 |
−1.19 (−1.28 to −1.09) |
< 0.001 |
−1.07 (−1.18 to −0.96) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
−0.23 (−0.25 to −0.2) |
< 0.001 |
0.13 (0.11 to 0.14) |
< 0.001 |
−1.32 (−1.55 to −1.09) |
< 0.001 |
−1.3 (−1.45 to −1.15) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
−0.01 (−0.02 to 0.00) |
0.151 |
0.13 (0.12 to 0.14) |
< 0.001 |
−1.74 (−1.94 to −1.55) |
< 0.001 |
−1.6 (−1.75 to −1.44) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
0.00 (0.00 to 0.00) |
0.173 |
0.09 (0.08 to 0.09) |
< 0.001 |
−1.59 (−1.85 to −1.32) |
< 0.001 |
−1.48 (−1.71 to −1.25) |
< 0.001 |
| Low SDI | Both |
0.02 (0.01 to 0.02) |
< 0.001 |
0.02 (0.02 to 0.03) |
< 0.001 |
−1.34 (−1.52 to −1.16) |
< 0.001 |
−1.38 (−1.48 to −1.27) |
< 0.001 |
| MD | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
0.22 (0.17 to 0.28) |
< 0.001 |
0.13 (0.09 to 0.17) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
0.15 (0.09 to 0.20) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
0.12 (0.07 to 0.17) |
< 0.001 |
0.13 (0.02 to 0.25) |
0.026 | NA | NA |
0.13 (0 to 0.26) |
0.051 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
−0.03 (−0.08 to 0.02) |
0.235 |
0.06 (0.03 to 0.09) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
0.07 (0.04 to 0.09) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
0.42 (0.27 to 0.58) |
< 0.001 |
0.18 (0.13 to 0.23) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
0.27 (0.24 to 0.31) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
0.18 (0.15 to 0.21) |
< 0.001 |
0.09 (0.06 to 0.12) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
0.16 (0.1 to 0.21) |
< 0.001 |
| Low SDI | Both |
0.00 (−0.09 to 0.10) |
0.916 |
0.06 (0.03 to 0.09) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
0.07 (0.01 to 0.14) |
0.026 |
| MSD | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
−0.19 (−0.21 to −0.17) |
< 0.001 |
0.11 (0.1 to 0.12) |
< 0.001 |
−0.07 (−0.34 to 0.21) |
0.629 |
0.05 (0.03 to 0.07) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
−0.02 (−0.04 to 0) |
0.072 |
0.15 (0.13 to 0.16) |
< 0.001 |
−0.74 (−1.11 to −0.38) |
< 0.001 |
0.14 (0.1 to 0.17) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
−0.33 (−0.34 to −0.31) |
< 0.001 |
0.04 (0.02 to 0.05) |
< 0.001 |
−0.18 (−0.68 to 0.32) |
0.483 |
−0.08 (−0.09 to −0.07) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
−0.17 (−0.18 to −0.16) |
< 0.001 |
0.18 (0.17 to 0.19) |
< 0.001 |
0.23 (0.01 to 0.45) |
0.042 |
0.11 (0.09 to 0.13) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
−0.08 (−0.1 to −0.05) |
< 0.001 |
0.22 (0.21 to 0.22) |
< 0.001 |
0.81 (0.27 to 1.35) |
0.003 |
0.23 (0.2 to 0.25) |
< 0.001 |
| Low SDI | Both |
−0.11 (−0.13 to −0.09) |
< 0.001 |
0.13 (0.13 to 0.14) |
< 0.001 |
0.44 (−0.04 to 0.92) |
0.072 |
0.12 (0.11 to 0.14) |
< 0.001 |
| Neoplasms | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
0.41 (0.33 to 0.5) |
< 0.001 |
0.47 (0.41 to 0.52) |
< 0.001 |
−0.59 (−0.72 to −0.46) |
< 0.001 |
−0.70 (−0.82 to −0.58) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
1.16 (1.08 to 1.24) |
< 0.001 |
0.75 (0.63 to 0.88) |
< 0.001 |
−0.84 (−0.93 to −0.75) |
< 0.001 |
−0.98 (−1 to −0.95) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
0.02 (−0.03 to 0.07) |
0.446 |
0.62 (0.57 to 0.67) |
< 0.001 |
−0.51 (−0.73 to −0.29) |
< 0.001 |
−0.65 (−0.89 to −0.41) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
0.28 (0.21 to 0.36) |
< 0.001 |
1.1 (1.02 to 1.19) |
< 0.001 |
−0.45 (−0.57 to −0.34) |
< 0.001 |
−0.56 (−0.64 to −0.47) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
0.34 (0.27 to 0.41) |
< 0.001 |
0.92 (0.85 to 0.98) |
< 0.001 |
0.27 (0.12 to 0.42) |
< 0.001 |
0.2 (0.07 to 0.33) |
0.003 |
| Low SDI | Both |
0.11 (0.07 to 0.14) |
< 0.001 |
0.51 (0.46 to 0.56) |
< 0.001 |
−0.06 (−0.17 to 0.04) |
0.216 |
−0.21 (−0.27 to −0.15) |
< 0.001 |
| ND | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
−0.07 (−0.07 to −0.06) |
< 0.001 |
−0.03 (−0.04 to −0.03) |
< 0.001 |
0.05 (0.01 to 0.09) |
0.007 |
0.08 (0.06 to 0.11) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
−0.04 (−0.04 to −0.03) |
< 0.001 |
−0.03 (−0.03 to −0.02) |
< 0.001 |
0.05 (0.01 to 0.08) |
0.018 |
0.07 (0.04 to 0.09) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
−0.13 (−0.16 to −0.11) |
< 0.001 |
−0.08 (−0.1 to −0.06) |
< 0.001 |
0.09 (0.05 to 0.12) |
< 0.001 |
0.14 (0.1 to 0.17) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
−0.01 (−0.02 to 0) |
0.097 |
0.07 (0.07 to 0.08) |
< 0.001 |
0.07 (−0.03 to 0.16) |
0.164 |
0.16 (0.11 to 0.21) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
−0.01 (−0.01 to 0.00) |
< 0.001 |
0.01 (0.01 to 0.01) |
< 0.001 |
0.41 (0.23 to 0.59) |
< 0.001 |
0.24 (0.13 to 0.35) |
< 0.001 |
| Low SDI | Both |
−0.01 (−0.02 to −0.01) |
< 0.001 |
0.00 (−0.01 to 0.00) |
0.354 |
0.30 (0.17 to 0.43) |
< 0.001 |
0.13 (0.05 to 0.21) |
0.002 |
| SOD | |||||||||
| Global | Both | NA | NA |
0.12 (0.09 to 0.15) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
−0.01 (−0.04 to 0.02) |
0.473 |
| High SDI | Both | NA | NA |
0.03 (0.02 to 0.04) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
−0.04 (−0.07 to 0) |
0.032 |
| High-middle SDI | Both | NA | NA |
0.17 (0.15 to 0.20) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
0.13 (0.09 to 0.17) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both | NA | NA |
0.08 (0.05 to 0.11) |
< 0.001 | NA | NA |
−0.14 (−0.19 to −0.09) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both | NA | NA |
0.03 (0.00 to 0.06) |
0.040 | NA | NA |
−0.46 (−0.49 to −0.42) |
< 0.001 |
| Low SDI | Both | NA | NA |
0.05 (0.02 to 0.08) |
0.001 | NA | NA |
−0.26 (−0.29 to −0.24) |
< 0.001 |
| SD and SCD | |||||||||
| Global | Both |
0.07 (0.07 to 0.07) |
< 0.001 |
0.14 (0.14 to 0.15) |
< 0.001 |
0.50 (0.31 to 0.70) |
< 0.001 |
0.20 (0.17 to 0.23) |
< 0.001 |
| High SDI | Both |
0.08 (0.07 to 0.09) |
< 0.001 |
0.18 (0.17 to 0.18) |
< 0.001 |
0.39 (0.10 to 0.68) |
0.009 |
0.17 (0.13 to 0.20) |
< 0.001 |
| High-middle SDI | Both |
−0.04 (−0.05 to −0.03) |
< 0.001 |
0.15 (0.14 to 0.15) |
< 0.001 |
1.25 (0.98 to 1.52) |
< 0.001 |
0.39 (0.35 to 0.43) |
< 0.001 |
| Middle SDI | Both |
0.15 (0.14 to 0.16) |
< 0.001 |
0.24 (0.24 to 0.25) |
< 0.001 |
0.25 (0.08 to 0.43) |
0.005 |
0.24 (0.20 to 0.28) |
< 0.001 |
| Low-middle SDI | Both |
0.11 (0.10 to 0.11) |
< 0.001 |
0.17 (0.16 to 0.17) |
< 0.001 |
0.39 (−0.09 to 0.88) |
0.112 |
0.19 (0.06 to 0.31) |
0.003 |
| Low SDI | Both |
0.02 (0.00 to 0.03) |
0.034 |
0.03 (0.02 to 0.04) |
< 0.001 |
−0.41 (−0.57 to −0.25) |
< 0.001 |
−0.12 (−0.18 to −0.06) |
< 0.001 |
NCDs Non-communicable Diseases, CVD Cardiovascular Diseases, CRD Chronic Respiratory Diseases, DM and CKD Diabetes and Kidney Diseases, DD Digestive Diseases, MD Mental Disorders, MSD Musculoskeletal Disorders, ND Neurological Disorders, SOD Sense Organ Diseases, SD and SCD Skin and Subcutaneous Diseases