Table 3.
Marginal posterior summaries of several model parameters.
| Parameter | Description | Mean (median) | MC error for mean | 95% Credible interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| μ | Overall log RR | –0.5963 (–0.6064) | 0.0651 | –1.2493 to 0.07618 |
| β0 | Same-day mortality | 0.0025 (0.0026) | 0.0002 | –0.0040 to 0.0092 |
| β1 | Lagged mortality (1) | 0.0039 (0.0038) | 0.0003 | –0.0034 to 0.0115 |
| β2 | Lagged mortality (2) | 0.0108 (0.0108) | 0.0003 | 0.0028 to 0.0181 |
| β3 | Lagged mortality (3) | –0.0011 (–0.0010) | 0.0002 | –0.0078 to 0.0051 |
| σz2 | Simulator variance | 20.2853 (20.9932) | 0.1489 | 12.3870 to 24.8422 |
| σx2 | Monitor error | 1.6495 (1.6476) | 0.0009 | 1.5594 to 1.7457 |
| θ0 | Mean PM2.5 (μg/m3) | 9.6856 (9.6916) | 0.0275 | 6.1121 to 13.1849 |
| θ1 | Maximum temperature (°F) | 0.0879 (0.0872) | 0.0006 | 0.0224 to 0.1527 |
| θ2 | Wind speed (miles/hr) | –0.0799 (–0.0798) | 0.0009 | –0.1607 to 0.0024 |
| θ3 | Sine term | –0.8764 (–0.8699) | 0.0061 | –1.4987 to –0.2455 |
| θ4 | Cosine term | –1.3451 (–1.3528) | 0.0091 | –2.3660 to –0.3142 |
Abbreviations: MC, Monte Carlo; RR, relative risk.