. 2025 Sep 29;15:33462. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-07775-z

Table 2.

AUCs for predictive ability of CVD risk assessment tools for fatal, non-fatal and composite CVD events in phase I of the cohort based on gender.

Gender	Risk assessment tools	P-value
AUC (95% CI) for fatal CVD events
Men*	0.8273 (0.7295–0.9304)	0.8273 (0.7302–0.9244)	0.9287 (0.8871–0.9703)	0.9119 (0.8586–0.9652)	0.8332 (0.7524–0.9139)	0.0015
Women**	0.8551 (0.7509–0.9593)	0.8540 (0.7495–0.9585)	0.8794 (0.7987–0.9601)	0.8609 (0.7797–0.9421)	0.8712 (0.7696–0.9728)	0.1604
AUC (95% CI) for non-fatal CVD events
Men*	0.6297 (0.5536–0.7059)	0.6279 (0.5514–0.7043)	0.6370 (0.5642–0.7098)	0.6279 (0.5527–0.7032)	0.6351 (0.5624–0.7077)	0.5699
Women**	0.6933 (0.6002–0.7865)	0.6940 (0.6017–0.7863)	0.7553 (0.6766–0.8340)	0.7319 (0.6572–0.8066)	0.7318 (0.6549-8088)	0.0084
AUC (95% CI) for composite (fatal and non-fatal) CVD events
Men*	0.6652 (0.5944–0.7360)	0.6636 (0.5924–0.7348)	0.6879 (0.6206–0.7552)	0.6774 (0.6081–0.7466)	0.6680 (0.6014–0.7345)	0.2107
Women**	0.7357 (0.6603–0.8110)	0.7359 (0.6612–0.8106)	0.7903 (0.7268–0.8538)	0.7674 (0.7058–0.8290)	0.7692 (0.7036–0.8348)	0.0019

Gender

Risk assessment tools

P-value

SCORE low European countries

SCORE high European countries

ACC/AHA tool

Framingham

SCORE2 for moderate, CVD risk populations***

AUC (95% CI) for fatal CVD events

Men*

0.8273

(0.7295–0.9304)

0.8273

(0.7302–0.9244)

0.9287

(0.8871–0.9703)

0.9119

(0.8586–0.9652)

0.8332 (0.7524–0.9139)

0.0015

Women**

0.8551

(0.7509–0.9593)

0.8540

(0.7495–0.9585)

0.8794

(0.7987–0.9601)

0.8609

(0.7797–0.9421)

0.8712

(0.7696–0.9728)

0.1604

AUC (95% CI) for non-fatal CVD events

Men*

0.6297

(0.5536–0.7059)

0.6279

(0.5514–0.7043)

0.6370

(0.5642–0.7098)

0.6279

(0.5527–0.7032)

0.6351 (0.5624–0.7077)

0.5699

Women**

0.6933

(0.6002–0.7865)

0.6940

(0.6017–0.7863)

0.7553

(0.6766–0.8340)

0.7319

(0.6572–0.8066)

0.7318

(0.6549-8088)

0.0084

AUC (95% CI) for composite (fatal and non-fatal) CVD events

Men*

0.6652

(0.5944–0.7360)

0.6636

(0.5924–0.7348)

0.6879

(0.6206–0.7552)

0.6774

(0.6081–0.7466)

0.6680

(0.6014–0.7345)

0.2107

Women**

0.7357

(0.6603–0.8110)

0.7359

(0.6612–0.8106)

0.7903

(0.7268–0.8538)

0.7674

(0.7058–0.8290)

0.7692

(0.7036–0.8348)

0.0019

ACC/AHA: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association, AUC: area under curve, CI: confidence interval, CVD: cardiovascular disease and SCORE: Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation.

*717 men aged 40–74 years with MASLD and without any history of CVD events in the first evaluation of the cohort.

**714 women aged 40–74 years with MASLD and without any history of CVD events in the first evaluation of the cohort.

***Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study results (http://ihmeuw.org/6e1f), we categorized Iran as a country with moderate CVD risk populations for SCORE2.