Table 2. Nonoutbreak data sources considered as possible predictors for .
| Predictor | Notes | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Biotic | ||
| Vector species* | Species: A. aegypti or A. albopictus | (112, 113) |
| CHIKV lineage* | Lineages: Asian, ECSA, or IOL | (21) |
| Included in all models due to observed posterior differences in R0 | ||
| Climatic | ||
| Temperature | Time points: Annual mean, monthly means 0 to 3 months before outbreak | (114) |
| Extracted from TerraClimate using longitude and latitude | ||
| Relative humidity | Time points: Annual mean, monthly means 0 to 3 months before outbreak | (114) |
| Extracted from TerraClimate using longitude and latitude | ||
| Precipitation | Time points: Annual mean, monthly means 0 to 3 months before outbreak | (114) |
| Extracted from TerraClimate using longitude and latitude | ||
| Eco- and Epidemiological | ||
| Aedes occurrence probability | Long-term monthly means derived from environmental data and mosquito presence-absence data | (21) |
| Time points: Long-term annual mean, long-term monthly means 0 to 3 months before outbreak | ||
| Extracted using longitude and latitude | ||
| Relative R0 | Model of temperature effects on Aedes-borne viral transmission | (29) |
| Time points: Annual mean, monthly means 0 to 3 months before outbreak | ||
| Computed using vector species and temperature data | ||
| Index-P | Model of temperature and humidity effects on Aedes-borne viral transmission | (26) |
| Time points: Annual mean, monthly means 0 to 3 months before outbreak | ||
| Dengue virus FOI | Single value derived from dengue incidence and environmental data | (23) |
| Extracted using longitude and latitude | ||
| Demographic/other | ||
| Population density | Log transformed | (95, 97) |
| Mean household size* | (95, 97) | |
| Mean distance to nearest neighbor | Computed by CHIKSIM population submodel | This study |
| Subnational human development index | Combines measurements of education, health, and standard of living | (64, 115, 116) |
| World Health Organization region | Regions: Africa, Americas, and Europe/Mediterranean (combined because of the small sample size), South East Asia, and Western Pacific | – |
| Included in all models due to observed posterior differences in |
*
These predictors’ values were extracted from the publications documenting each outbreak, whenever possible; otherwise, we used the sources listed in the table.