Table 2.
The estimation results on (A) measles cases and (B) measles costs per capita using Non-SAR models and GSAR models. Numbers in bold reflects that the parameter Estimation is significant at the 95% confidence level.
| Variables | (A) Measles cases | (B) Measles costs per capita | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poisson | GSAR-Poisson | Gamma | GSAR-Gamma | |||||
| Mean (SD) |
95% CI | Mean (SD) |
95% CI | Mean (SD) |
95% CI | Mean (SD) |
95% CI | |
| (Intercept) |
− 11.338 (0.010) |
(− 11.358, − 11.318) |
− 3.983 (0.142) |
(− 4.289, − 3.708) |
5.332 (0.005) |
(5.322, 5.342) | 1.866 (0.000) | (1.854, 1.867) |
MMR level reduction % ( ) |
0.243 (0.000) |
(0.242, 0.243) |
0.090 (0.004) |
(0.082, 0.097) |
0.006 (0.000) |
(0.006, 0.007) |
0.001 (0.000) |
(0.001, 0.001) |
Transmissibility ( ) | ||||||||
| 0.4 (Low level) |
− 0.897 (0.004) |
(− 0.905, − 0.889) |
− 0.382 (0.042) |
(− 0.466, − 0.300) |
− 0.057 (0.005) |
(− 0.067, − 0.048) |
− 0.012 (0.004) |
(− 0.019, − 0.005) |
| 0.6 (High level) |
0.546 (0.003) |
(0.540, 0.552) |
0.281 (0.038) |
(0.207, 0.354) |
0.026 (0.005) |
(0.016, 0.035) |
0.006 (0.003) |
(0.000, 0.003) |
Home isolation/quarantine compliance % ( ) | ||||||||
| 85 (Median level) |
− 0.422 (0.003) |
(− 0.428, − 0.416) |
− 0.195 (0.038) |
(− 0.269, − 0.121) |
− 0.036 (0.005) |
(− 0.045, − 0.027) |
− 0.008 (0.003) |
(− 0.014, − 0.001) |
| 95 (High level) |
− 1.053 (0.004) |
(− 1.060, − 1.046) |
− 0.434 (0.041) |
(− 0.516, − 0.353) |
− 0.056 (0.005) |
(− 0.065, − 0.047) |
− 0.012 (0.004) |
(− 0.019, − 0.005) |
| Average household annual income (in thousand US$) |
0.169 (0.002) |
(0.165, 0.174) |
0.060 (0.027) |
(0.008, 0.113) |
0.028 (0.003) |
(0.021, 0.034) |
0.007 (0.002) |
(0.002, 0.012) |
| Proportion of male |
0.296 (0.002) |
(0.291, 0.300) |
0.203 (0.020) |
(0.163, 0.243) |
0.009 (0.002) |
(0.005, 0.013) |
0.005 (0.002) |
(0.002, 0.008) |
| Proportion of children under 5 years old |
0.017 (0.002) |
(0.013, 0.021) |
0.085 (0.026) |
(0.035, 0.136) |
0.015 (0.003) |
(0.009, 0.020) |
0.007 (0.002) |
(0.003, 0.011) |
| Proportion of employed population |
− 0.349 (0.004) |
(− 0.357, − 0.342) |
− 0.212 (0.035) |
(− 0.281, − 0.143) |
− 0.018 (0.004) |
(− 0.025, − 0.010) |
− 0.006 (0.003) |
(− 0.011, 0.000) |
| DIC | 101,215 | 8377.86 | 37,534 | 11,807 | ||||
| WAIC | 3,274,540 | 8108.16 | 37,541 | 10,829 | ||||
| Predictive RMSE | 17.004 | 0.878 | 5.806 | 0.139 | ||||
| Moran’s I statistics | 0.169 | − 0.235 | 0.899 | − 0.215 | ||||
Lag coefficient ( ) |
0.717 (0.010) |
(0.696, 0.736) |
0.686 (0.009) |
(0.667, 0.703) | ||||
The reference level of transmissibility (
) is 0.5.
The reference level of home isolation/quarantine compliance % (
) is 75.